| Since PPDAI was founded in 2007, the P2P network lending platforms are emerging in an endless stream in our country and the P2P network lending industry has developed rapidly. To be brief, the P2P network lending provides an online platform for both borrowers and lenders. The P2P network platform has the characteristics of convenience, prompt and low recruit standard. It can not only solve the problem of a large number of small and medium enterprises’ financing difficulties, but also open up a new funding channel, to a certain extent, reducing the cost of financing.Because of the special situation that the China’s credit system has not been established completely, the main feature of the P2P network lending is the guarantee mechanism when compared with other advanced countries. Using the way of guarantee to attract investors cannot hedge P2P network credit risk essentially, but increasing risk. After the events of the compensations of Hongling Capital, and the bankruptcy of Hebei Financing Investment Guarantee Group, the cancellation of guaranty has become the industry’s consensus, regulator’s attitude is also clearer. In 2015, the government has issued "the guiding opinions on promoting the development of the internet finance healthy" and "the interim measures of the network information intermediary business management (Exposure Draft)". The guidance further confirmed that the P2P institution is just an information intermediary. The interim measures further amplify that the P2P institution may not provide guaranty for investors or commitment break-even interest. The trend of cancelling the guaranty is becoming clearer.On the background of cancelling guaranty, the control of risk is the key to determine the core competitiveness. When the P2P lending in China developes rapidly, many problems also arise, pyramid scheme and collapse on the P2P network lending platform, lax supervision in the industry, all above bury a huge risk for investors. Therefore the credit problem in the P2P network lending platform is particularly important. The platform must do more to improve their risk management model to guard against credit risk. As the government regulatory agencies and the bottom line of risk are increasingly clear, researching the credit risk problem of the platform on the background of cancelling guaranty becoming very important. Being a kind of credit business, and loaning to the people who has low credit, the credit risk is the core issue in the P2P network platform’s development. So the paper mainly researches the credit risk problem of the P2P lending platform on the background of canceling guaranty. According to the characteristics of P2P network lending, the paper defines the credit risk at first, then analyzes the current situation of the credit risk of the P2P network lending in our country and researches the measurement and management problems. What’s more, the paper quantitatively analyzes the 300000 pieces of data from Renrendai, using the logit regression model to find out the characteristics of default and the most critical factors for the credit risk of the P2P network platform. At last, the paper puts forward relevant countermeasures and suggestions.In this paper, the content and the main points we research are as below:The first chapter is the introduction part. First the paper elaborates the research background, research purpose and meaning. Second lists the related literature research about P2P lending thoroughly both in China and abroad from the aspect of operation mode, the credit risk factors and countermeasures, then establishing the research contents and research methods of the paper. Finally the paper points out the innovation and deficiency in this study.The second chapter relates the theory about the credit risk research of P2P lending. The paper briefly introduces the theories such as the theory of financial disintermediation, asymmetric information theory, trust theory and social exchange theory on which preparing for the theoretical and empirical analysis.The third chapter is part of the current situation of the development of the P2P lending. On the basis of reviewing the development of P2P lending in China, the paper summarizes the operating and risk control mode of the current P2P lending platform and raises guarantee and non-guarantee problems of the P2P lending platform. Further the paper explores the problem of the P2P lending platform facing in our country and mainly put forward the credit risk problem in our country.The fourth chapter is the part of the analysis of P2P lending credit risk in our country. First of all, according to the characteristics of P2P network lending, the paper defines the credit risk, then analyzes the current situation of the credit risk of the P2P network lending in our country and researches the measurement and management problems. Take Renrendai for example, the paper introduces the present situation of risk, the risk control methods, etc. in detail.The fifth chapter is the part of the empirical research on P2P lending credit risk. The paper makes the descriptive analysis on the 300000 pieces of standard data crawled from the Renrendai website at first. With the background of cancelling guaranty, the paper focuses on analyzing the objects of credit certification. Furthermore, the paper compares the objects of credit certification, field certification, guarantee, and classifies the differences of the three objects. Then uses the logit regression model to quantitative analysis the objects of credit certification, finding out that the credit grade, age, education, interest rate, income, number of overdue, successful loan number, loan targets, history and the total amount of borrowing are all have significant impact on credit risk.The sixth chapter put forward the countermeasures for risk control according the credit risk of the P2P lending industry.The innovation of the paper can summarize as the following three points: First, the paper uses the descriptive statistical on the use of the loan by the borrower. It concludes that the default rates would be higher when the loan was used on pursuing high quality life, and the default rates would be lower when the loan was used on learning or entrepreneurship. The paper put forward that the platform should classify the use of the loan by borrower and take different management measures on the risk. Second, the paper classifies the objects of loans into three kinds which conclude the objects of credit certification, field certification, guarantee. Then this paper uses the logit regression model to quantitatively analyze the objects of credit, finding out that the credit grade, age, education, interest rate, income, number of overdue, successful loan number, loan targets, history and the total amount of borrowing are all have significant impact on credit risk. Third, this paper has given some creative countermeasures and suggestions for reducing credit risk such as cooperating with insurance company.The paper only list the method on risk control, not further illustrates relevant examples. What’s more, since there are no default in the objects in field certification standard and institutional guarantee, this paper cannot make an analysis of the two underlying credit risks. In the process of classifying the use of the loan by the borrowers’, this paper has certain subjectivity thus only making descriptive statistics. The future direction of the research should further refine the study on the influence of default on the purpose. Because of the shortage of time and ability, the research of the cooperation between P2P network lending platform and insurance company on the background of cancelling guaranty is not perceptive. |
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