Influence Of Real Estate Wealth Effect On Consumption Of Urban Households

In the 21st century, China's housing prices rise rapidly in the long-term, thus urban households real estate wealth also increased rapidly, a large number of scholars began to study the impact of real estate wealth effect on consumption,due to the lack of micro-data, the research methods are concentrated in the cointegration theory and from the macro point of view, but due to the small sample size data of the macro data, different scholars based on different time intervals come to different conclusions, or even come to dramatically opposite conclusions. For this reason, in recent years with the implement of microscopic investigation, some researchers began to use micro data to study the effect of real estate wealth effect on consumption, such as CHFS and CHNS data, because of data limitations researchers often use the former to study the real estate wealth effect on consumption of durables, but the correlation of durables and real estate market will reduce the reliability of its conclusions. What's more? The latter beginning in 2010s will also bring some limitations to researchers; Different from the above two microscopic survey data, the national Bureau of Statistics UHS (UHS) data contains a lot of detailed data on consumption and real estate wealth information, it will allow us to study the influence of real estate wealth effect on consumption since housing reform.This paper will from the perspective of the combination of macro and micro data, first use of macro data to conduct a preliminary study of the impact of real estate wealth effect on urban households consumption, then focus on the survey in Beijing, Zhejiang, Guangdong, Sichuan, Shanxi, Liaoning provinces, use the urban households survey data of six provinces and cities to study the real estate wealth effect on urban households consumption.Unlike previous studies, this paper focusing on the impact of real estate wealth effect on urban households consumption:First, through the literature of real estate wealth effect on Urban Residents family consumption to study the theory and mechanism of it; Secondly, use of macro data to conduct a preliminary study of the impact of real estate wealth effect on urban households consumption; Again, from the microscopic point of view to examine the effects of the real estate market wealth effect on consumption by urban households panel data model, followed by the use of ordinary linear regression and quantile regression to analysis the fluctuation of it during the financial crisis when the real estate wealth market experiencing uncertainty. What's more? The heterogeneity of urban household consumption affect by the real estate wealth during the financial crisis will be studied also. That is to study the difference of influencing of real estate wealth effect on urban households between households of different ownership, different house number, and different life cycle stages during the financial crisis. Finally, based on the above research conclusions and the current situations that the real estate market "Destocking" background, to gives stability and expansion of consumption rationalization proposals, and for China's macro economy to turn to "consumer economy", as well as to give development suggestions during the background of "Supply-side reform".From the macro point of view, the article cointegration results show that, from 2002 to 2013, China's real estate wealth effect is significantly positive for urban resident per capita consumption expenditure of cash, with elasticity coefficient of 0.0632, far less than the impact of their disposable income.From the microscopic point of view, the panel data model test results of the article show that both household real estate wealth and the price of its impact on the overall urban household consumption were significantly positive, that is, the real estate market development and housing prices really drive the improving of urban household consumption levels. If the panel model using the income index of disposable income indicators, specifically between 2002 and 2005 real estate wealth elasticity of urban household consumption is around 0.0718, and it is close to macro results. Means wealth or family housing prices rose one percent of its household consumption will increase 0.0718 percent, which is no insignificant difference with existing research results; but if revenue index using permanent income indicators, its real estate wealth elasticity of consumption is 0.2358, also close to existing research and conclusions, although there are differences, but all support the conclusion mentioned earlier.From 2006 to 2009, the cross-sectional regression results show that when there is uncertainty around the real estate market the influencing of it will experience a "V-type" reverse process. Application of quantile regression from 2006 to 2009 before and after the global financial crisis, when China's real estate market is experiencing uncertainty, the result shows that consumption level between 0.2 and 0.75 quantile will first be affected, the rapid decline in real estate wealth effect, but the level of consumption is above 0.75 quantile their families have been hit almost negligible. And when uncertainty further strengthen all the family real estate wealth effect are shrinking fast, consumption level below the median household, their real estate wealth effect which will quickly drop to near zero, or even negative, but the family whose consumption is under 0.6 are affected the most. When under strong government stimulus subsequently resumed a rising trend in the real estate market, real estate wealth effect of all families are also rebound quickly, the difference is the high consumption of households (consumption quintile is 0.6 and above) whose wealth effect would exceed previous highs, while other families have less than the pre-effect level, indicating that it exacerbated the gap of consumption. Finally, the heterogeneity of household real estate wealth effect research findings also show that the existence of different types of families during the uncertainty of the financial crisis, the real estate wealth effect has a positive impact on consumption and will experience a "V-type" reverse process.