Long Life Product’s Reliability Modeling And Analysis Based On Performance Degradation

With the dramatically development of science and technology,the dramatically increase of manufacturing technology level, the high-speed changing of new materials, long life products more and more widely applied in the aerospace, electronics industry, the field of information communication as the core. However, how to modeling and analysis the reliability has become a problem to be solved. In recent years, the performance degradation data are widely used by many scholars and engineers to deal with issues of reliability modeling and analysis for products which are characterized as small simple, long life. Make the reliability modeling and analysis method based on performance degradation has become a hotspot in the field of reliability engineering.In order to get more credible analysis result, different data information should establish suitable degradation model to describe the degradation process, combining the mathematic method and simulation method of degradation model with parameter estimation and model validation. In this paper,we has done some exploratory research based on performance degradation for long life product reliability modeling and analysis of the problems, the main research contents and results are as follows:(1) Reliability modeling and analysis based on the stochastic process. This paper has introduced the basic content of stochastic process, and analysis the condition of the two types of random degradation process modeling which are reliability modeling and analysis based on the Wiener-Einstein process、Gamma process, reliability model is established and the model parameters estimation are completed, and the confidence lower limit of reliability for general Bootstrap simulation method are given, finally this paper has combined satellite Momentum Wheel data to verify the applicability and the accuracy of the method.(2) Reliability modeling and analysis based on the inflection point data of multi-phase stochastic process. Fistly,this paper has introduced the origin of long life products’ inflection point data, raised the questions in multistage reliability modeling, then it has completed the multi-phase degradation model, given the closed expression of failure distribution and parameter estimation method, and presented a general Bootstrap confidence lower limit of the simulation method, finally combined with satellite data to verify the multi-stage battery degradation of applicability and accuracy of the model.(3) Reliability modeling and analysis based on the function fitting competition relationship of the competition failures. Firstly, this paper has introduced the origin of the problem of competition failure for the long life product, analyses the traumatic failures and the connection between the degradation failure with traumatic failures, put forward the function fitting method to fit traumatic failure’s competition relationship with degradation failure, competition failure model is established and the model parameters estimation are completed, finally combined with the Ga As laser data instance compares the calculation results and the degradation of the modeling results, the applicability and the accuracy of competitive failure model is verified.