Study On The Political Risk Assessment And Prevention Of Overseas Contract Projects

In recent years, the overseas project contracting business in China has achieved rapid development. Under the policy of "Go Out" and "The Belt and Road" overseas contracting project has a very broad space for development, facing great opportunities. However, although the great opportunities, overseas contract projects in China also faces many risks. Of the risks facing the overseas contracting projects, the greatest risk is the political risk for its great uncertainty and impact. Political risk has become one of the important factors of project which decision makers of overseas contractors must pay attention to. Therefore comprehensively assessing political risks of overseas project and puting out preventive measures from the perspective of overseas contractors is particularly important. Because the impact of political risk for the project has a great relationship with the characteristics of risk bearers, considering the characteristics of risk bearer system,vulnerability,when assessing political risk and puting out preventive measures is of great improtance. Therefore, paper base on vulnerability Theory to build political risk assessment model of overseas project contracting from two dimensions, Threat and Vulnerability, and to put out preventive measures from the perspective of reducing the vulnerability of system.Firstly, through analyzing the vulnerability theory and characteristics of the political risk of overseas project contracting and based on the principle of building index system, paper built the index system of political risk assessment of overseas contract project with the method of literature research method and normative researtch.Secondly, paper built the political risk measurement model based on which built the model of political risk assessment with the method of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. Paper approach model of political risk assessment to a road project in Kenya and assess the political risk of the project. Comparing the result of not considering vulnerability of system, the model can more accurately assess the political risk of overseas contract project.Finally, according to the frame of political risk assessment and prevention paper put out measures of reducing the impact of political risk from the perspective of reducing the vulnerability of system.Paper base on vulnerability Theory to build political risk assessment model of overseas project contracting which,in a certain extent, can make up for neglection of characteristics of risk bearer when assessing political risk and puting out measures of prevention. In this way can contractor assess political risk more accuately and help for the risk decisions.