Study On The Evaluation Of The Local Government Debt Risk

China made amendment about the budget law in 2014, which clearly put forward that local governments have the authority to release government bond in order to contract loans within a limited amount. In the same year, the state council issued Advisory Opinions on Strengthening Management of Local Government's Debt, which carried out an overall provision on how to manage local governmental debt, emphasizing that governmental bond serves as the only source of debt for local governments.The incremental debt of local governments would only rely on the green-lights bond sales by provincial-level governments and their departments, instead of counting on those from financing platforms. The remaining governmental debt as well as the debt balance would be regarded as existing obligation, which would be replaced by provincial-level governmental debt within five years. Due to the differences between the incremental obligation and the existing obligation, the local governments might encounter debt risks that are different from the previous ones. As a result, under the current policy, it is necessary and meaningful to carry out studies on the evaluation of the local governmental debt risk.Firstly sorting out related concepts and theories, this paper carried out an analysis on the present situation of the local governmental debt and its risks, based on which, selecting target and principles of the evaluating index of the local governmental debt gets to be established. According to classification of debt regulated by the present policy, in the three points of general debt, special debt, and contingent liabilities, the paper selected 11 indexes by the three links of borrowing, using and repayment, and thusly an index evaluation system of the provincial-level governmental debt risk was established. Taking advantages of the fuzzy evaluation method, we also set up an evaluating mode. Moreover, we set the AHP as our main method to weight the various indicators. The governmental debt of Jiangsu Province in 2015 was adopted as our research case, and thanks to which, the conclusion that the overall risks of the Jiangsu governmental debt was manageable got drawn. At last, in accordance with the external form of the provincial governmental debt risks, we made contributions to the suggestions on the risk management in views of scale controlling, structure optimizing, efficiency increasing, as well as the repayment ensuring.