| P2P lending is a microfinance lending innovation business that rises in recent years, as one of the emerging Internet financial models, with the low barriers to entry, the flexible and efficient trading way, the diversification of investment projects, and so on, which fills the blank and the shortcomings of traditional financial system of microfinance.With P2P platform has the "explosive" growth, the problem of platform and "run", the collapse of platform also emerge in endlessly. Debit and credit capital concentration reflect the risk of P2P lending and have an effect on the transaction rates of P2P platform.At first, this paper discusses the difference between P2P lending and traditional financial borrowing service, introduces the pricing model of lending rate on P2P platform, discusses the mechanism of the effect of debit and credit capital concentration to the transaction rates of P2P platform. And this paper analyzes the game relation among the lender, the debtor and platform, constructs the game model, analyzes the pay-off matrix of the three parties under the conditions of different debit and credit capital concentration, and establishes the profit function respectively.This paper selects the 293 most representative P2P platform in China for sample, collects and sorts out the monthly trade data from September 2015 to February 2016, and calculates debit and credit capital concentration and the transaction rates of P2P platform. And this paper builds the simultaneous equations model of debit and credit capital concentration and the transaction rates of P2P platform, and has simultaneous test and recognition, then has the estimation of parameters of the model by three stage least square method, coming to the following conclusion:(1) That lender is willing to lend money to bid is based on the discernment of the risk level from capital structure of P2P platform that borrowing mark belong to. When having a strong capacity of discernment, lender has a successful investment on the P2P platform. The disclosure of real capital concentration of platform by itself actively will contribute the lender to invest. How to make the lender discern the risk level from capital structure of P2P platform accurately with the low cost of disclosure is the key to make profit for platform. (2) The transaction rates of P2P platform have a positive effect on its credit capital concentration. The more lenders, credit capital concentration of P2P platform lowers instead. The higher the leverage, credit capital concentration of P2P platform goes up instead. (3) The transaction rates of P2P platform have a negative effect on its debit capital concentration. The more debtors, debit capital concentration of P2P platform lowers instead. (4) Debit and credit capital concentration have a negative effect on the transaction rates of P2P platform, or there are the phenomena that "The Risk Discerned Effect" is stronger than "The Risk Concentrated Effect".Finally, this paper puts forward some relevant policy Suggestions for the lender, the debtor, platform and regulators respectively. |
