| With the rapid development of China’s economy, the energy construction also entered a stage of rapid development.Now,electric power industry has become an indispensable basic industry of our country’s economic construction,Southern Snow Disaster of 2008 let us see the importance of "power" in the construction of national economy.However,along with the electric power market reform of our country,although the power industry has developed rapidly,but it has not been out of the "surplus electricity-reduce the investment-power shortage-increase investment-surplus electricity" vicious circle, excessive investment and insufficient investment will lead to great economic loss.To face An important challenge for the reform of the electricity market is how to maintain the appropriate amount of power to meet the load demand, and not to cause the excess capacity.Therefore,it is of great significance to study the generation capacity investment strategies of power suppliers.This paper collected 2032 groups of China interbank offered rate from October 8 of 2006 to November 25 of 2014,to analysis uncertainty interest rate, to simulation analysis and comparison the interest rate fluctuations process with Merton, Vasicek, CIR three kinds of model,from the empirical point of view that the uncertainty of the interest subjects to the CIR interest rate model.Based on this, this paper use net current value method to research interest rate uncertainty investment strategy and to find the critical value of investment;Again, assume that the interest rate obeys the CIR model construction,construction of the interest rate under the uncertainty of power generation investment strategy model and solve the investment threshold of the real option theory;finally, using Matlab software to simulate and analysis the influence of various parameters on the threshold.The analysis results show that:1)the investment threshold with uncertain parameters of volatility to zero is the same with the net present value of discount rate;2)Investment threshold is positively related.with generation capacity investment cost, uncertain parameters and return volatility,investment option to delay investment with the increase of investment costs;it rise linear with the increase of interest rate volatility, regression level, the volatility is significant on the impact of the investment threshold;The higher the speed rate of return, the lower investment threshold is, the smaller future investment value for power producer is, the more easy to trigger its investment. |
