| With the development of network,the scale of the electronic commerce has a rapid growth in our china,but also bring along a lot of problems,like the disputes caused by Reverse logistics between the online consumers and electronic retailing.The introduction of the insurance of returns freight can reduce the transaction disputes.Return freight risk is a new type of domestic Internet finance.Compared with others insurance,it is cheap and sales good.However since issued,the insurance company has been in a loss.Now most of the research on the insurance of returns freight focuses on the macro problems such as terms of the contract,the Service.So based on the information asymmetry,this paper will create a formula that satisfies the target profit of the insurer.This paper can be divided into three parts:The first part,which is composed of chapter one and chapter two,mainly illuminate the significances of researching on the insurance pricing influenced by the information asymmetry,besides,some basic knowledge on the insurance of returns freight and the information asymmetry.At the same time,the empirical analysis has been carried to prove the degree of information asymmetry in the returns freight insurance market.The second part is chapter three,mainly discussed an elementary problem of returns freight insurance pricing-modeling.The returns freight insurance pricing is determined by the expected losses of sales return,thus the research on the probability of the sales return is an elementary and important work.In this paper,though the analysis of the correlation factors,extracting the significant factors influencing the return of the goods,a forecast consumer return probability of fine evaluation system is made.At the end,the consumers return probability prediction model is established by using the support vector machine(SVM).The third part which is the most important part in the paper,composes of four and five chapter.In this part,the insurance price influenced by information asymmetry is researched.In chapter four,firstly,by using the signaling games theory,a model is established to study the equalization game strategy between the insured and the insurer,then with the knowledge of chapter three,the returns freight insurance price formula that satisfies the target profit of the insurer is got.In chapter five,the information screening theory is used to study the game equilibrium strategies of participants both sides under adverse selection.With the help of this,the formula about the returns freight insurance price is established.The study shows that in return freight insurance market,asymmetric information,moral hazard and adverse selection phenomenon is obvious.The error by using the consumer return probability prediction model based on the SVM is smaller,it can be used to forecast the probability of the consumer return.Meanwhile,according to the theory of game theory and expected loss under the risk of moral hazard and adverse selection in pricing model demonstrate that the insurance price is directly proportional to the return of the freight,examining cost of the insurer,consumer return probability,the credit of the consumer ever buying the insurance,so in order to reach the target profit,the insurer will let the insured afford the additional losses caused by moral hazard and adverse selection.The innovation of this study is that by choosing the insurance of returns freight(buyer)as the research object,and quantify the asymmetric information in the return of the freight insurance market,then pricing models are set up respectively under the risk of hazard and adverse selection.It is difficult to distinguish the risk of moral hazard and adverse selection in many cases,so it need further research to combined the two risk in comprehensive consideration in the insurance of the return insurance market. |
