Study On Classification And Prediction For The Development Of Chinese Postal Business

With the development of the logistics market and electronic commerce in China,the competition among Express Logistics industry has become more and more fierce.As China entering the WTO, the international tycoons of Express Diverliver have increasingly flooded into Chinese market.And with the increasing emergement of private enterprises,those express companies have quickly occupied and devided the half market of China.Confronted with this dilimma from home and abroad,as the founding members of this industry,Chinese Postal Service must quicken its pace of reform and master market messages to promote its competition for market.Based on the purpose, this paper will have the aid of Matlab and SPSS software to make an analysis on the 156 data totally from January,2002 to December,2014 of Postal Service by the technology of data mining.Through the method of Principal Component Analysis,only using 33 of which wecan indicate 87.32% information.And we can alse conclude that express logistics business and the magazine suscription sale have more pushing effect on Postal Service,in which the biggest infulence is the first one.The amount of express logistics accounts for so much that when we classify the branch business,we find that no matter which methods(Decision Tree method,Navie Bayes classification or Support Vector method),we can conclude — — We can have an expectation for the development of the total amount of Postal Service,meanwhile,of which this paper investigates the application of Time Series method to analyse the trend in development of Postal Service,as we find,which is related with the change of seasons.As a result,as long as we expect the trend in development of Postal Service in2015,we can have an expectation of the total amount of Postal Service in 2015 with the application of Season-Time Series method.