Producer Heterogeneity And The Probit Model Of Dynamic Export

This paper uses data 2004-2006 Chinese industrial enterprises in the database,export enterprises to establish dynamic export Probit model for the study. Model in addition to the enterprise itself heterogeneity factor, but joined the exchange rate impact factor, combined with export data, a comprehensive empirical testing. In the case of the known prior distribution of the parameters of the model using MCMC methods to estimate the model, at the same time gives the parameter estimates, but also to the confidence interval, quantile, MCMC convergence diagnostics, diagnostic parameters showed that the chains converge.