| With the rapid development of the Internet economy and technology, a new open-source virtual currency-bitcoin was born. In less than seven years, bitcoin has initially formed a relatively complete industrial chain. At the same time, bitcoin become hot financial investment products and a new way for payment. But the bitcoin price volatility is larger, which has experienced four spike. As the development of bitcoin, the qualitative study of bitcoin began to appear, but the quantitative study of the bitcoin price is in the blank stage.Based on the theory of monetary economics and network economics, this article study the price formation mechanism of virtual currency using the equilibrium of supply and demand model and the logarithmic means division index method. Then it selects bitcoin as an example for the empirical analysis. Finally, this article puts forward the corresponding measures and policy recommendations of how to perfect the bitcoin price formation mechanism in China by drawing lessons from the relevant experience of Foreign countries.Firstly, the paper analyzes the operation mechanism of virtual currency pricing mechanism based on the balance of supply and demand method respectively from the overall and local perspective in China. And it gets the following conclusion. From the overall perspective, because of the rising cost of bitcoin mining,the supply curve move to the left in the long time. The rapid rising of the currency speculative demand and means of payment demand leads to the demand curve of virtual currency moving to the right. So the currency price is rising. From the local view, the virtual currency will experience four development stages in China. It respectively is the currency initialization phase, the currency exchange fiat boom phase, the currency investment stage, bitcoin as the means of payment stage. Then the paper makes the analysis of the virtual currency equilibrium price and the change trend of every stage using the supply and demand equilibrium analysis method. Then it gets the results. The characteristic of the currency initialization phase is that the currency supply exceeds demand. The characteristic of the currency exchange fiat boom phase is that the price of the currency has at a greatly degree dropped after the first increase. The characteristic of the currency investment stage is that the change of the currency price is controlled in controllable scope. The characteristic of bitcoin as the means of payment stage is that the currency price is basically stable. The currency price forming mechanism in our country begins to mature and gradually gets rid of the influence of the society environment. At present, the currency price forming mechanism currency is in the early stage of investment in China. It can be predicted that recently the currency price will be increased in our country and the fluctuations of the virtual currency price will be in a reasonable scope in the long term.Secondly, the paper uses the LMDI factorization equation to divide the influence factors of virtual currency price forming mechanism into currency function factor, economic development factor, network factor, economic factor and the currency attention factor. All of these factors show respectively the currency market scale, the degree of domestic economic development, the domestic Internet technology, the degree of Internet economy development, and the public participation. Then this article quantifies the influence degree of the five factors scientifically. Currency function factor, network economy factor and economic development factor are the promoting factor, and network factor and attention factor is inhibiting factor of currency prices. This conclusion shows that the perfection of the virtual currency price mechanism needs to pay attention to the currency product innovation and the improvement of Internet application. The sorting of contribution rates of five factors is the currency function factor, economic factor, economic development factor, network factor, attention factor, respectively, is 91.77,2.82,1.5,2.82,1.5. Currency function factor on the currency price formation is most obvious. From 2010 to 2014, contribution rate of currency function factor, in turn, is 2.48,16.93,58.29,16.93, 58.29.This means that the sound of virtual currency market is helpful for the improvement of the pricing mechanism. The contribution rate of bitcoin heat factor is decreasing and from 2010 to 2014 the contribution rate, in turn, is 0.76,0.17,0.1,0.02, 0.01. This result reflects the existing currency price mechanism of our country has a certain ability to resist risks.Finally, take lessons from the typical foreign bitcoin price formation mechanism, such as German’s attaching great importance to the market pricing mechanism, America’s pursuing excellence in law, and Thailand’s doing well in terms of risk information transparency, paying attention to risk prevention and control of danger. Combined with the concrete situation in our country, the paper suggests drawing lessons from German’s policy open mode, America’s regulatory mode and Thailand’s risk aversion mode. Considering the specific situation in our country, the article puts forward the corresponding measures and policy recommendations of how to perfect the bitcoin price formation mechanism in China. From macro-perspective, it should strengthen speculative risk prevention, implement digital currency license and the real-name system, establish and perfect the system of the jurisdiction of the bitcoin. From meso-perspective, it is needed to set up the bitcoin industry association to constraint business platform competition behavior, strengthen the bitcoin monetary functions. From Micro- perspective, the bitcoin related business and persons are supposed to perfect staff training system, improve the enterprise overall quality, make efforts to service and products innovation, and promote competition ability, improve risk-guard consciousness, perfect the mechanism of enterprise’s risk control, etc. |
PDF Full Text Request