Age Structure Of Population,Social Pension Insurance And Inflation Empirical Analysis Based On Provincial Panel Data In China

Inflation is an important factor affecting economic growth and is related to the short-term speed and long-term stability of economic growth.At present,the research on the influencing factors of inflation mostly starts from the short-to-medium-term factors such as supply and demand,industrial structure,and expectations,while the research on long-term influencing factors is relatively rare.From a theoretical perspective,both the age structure of the population and the social endowment insurance will affect inflation over a long period of time.Specifically,the age structure of the population will affect inflation from the four paths of demand effect,supply effect,industrial structure effect,and fiscal effect;The change in the demand for old-age insurance will in turn affect inflation from the path of asset substitution,consumer cognition,consumer crowding,and retirement effects.At the same time,structural changes in the age structure of the population will lead to changes in the social pension insurance,which will intensify the inflation.The effect of expansion.Based on this,this paper will study the age structure of the population,the social pension insurance and the macroeconomic variables into the same test model and build a new inflation research system to obtain valuable conclusions.Prior to the empirical study,the paper reviewed the relevant theories that influence inflation.Firstly,we systematically analyze the age structure of the population,social pension insurance,and other related theories and related research literature.We find that the main research results of scholars at home and abroad are mainly based on subdividing a key variable in the macroeconomic variables and forming inflation.The more mature research system,but from the perspective of population age structure and social pension insurance,relevant research results need to be enriched,especially the impact of the age structure of the population and social pension insurance tested in the same model on inflation Research needs to be improved.Therefore,based on the research of relevant scholars,this paper constructs a reasonable test model,fills in relevant research shortcomings,and improves the inflation research system.Empirically,based on the above theoretical review and literature review,the independent variable was selected as the population age structure and social pension insurance,and the control variables were selected as macroeconomic variables.Secondly,an empirical study was conducted and the static panel data model was used to test.The Likelihood ratio and Hausman Test results showed that the results of the fixed effect model were better.In addition,due to the large differences in geographic location,population,economy,and customs between China's eastern,central and western regions,it is necessary to divide the age structure of the regional population of the study population and the impact of social pension insurance on inflation.The results show that differences in the eastern,central and western regions are minor,but The old-age dependency ratio and unemployment rate in the western region are different from those in the eastern and central regions and the overall empirical results.Finally,because the differential GMM model can better solve the problems of heteroskedasticity,autocorrelation and endogenousness in empirical research,this paper uses the differential GMM model to conduct empirical research.The results show that the child dependency ratio can promote the increase of inflation.However,the old-age dependency ratio is less than the inflation rate,which is consistent with the theoretical analysis.There is a significant positive relationship between pension insurance contributions and inflation,while the reform of the social pension insurance system in 2005 has an inhibitory effect on inflation;Variables have different effects on inflation.To sum up,the government can promote the healthy development of the economy and alleviate the pressure of aging by increasing labor efficiency,delaying the retirement age,developing the pension industry,improving the operating efficiency of pension funds,and reasonably calculating and setting the parameters of the pension insurance system.At the same time,through the control of the above factors,the effectiveness and pertinence of monetary policy control prices can be improved,and the sustainable and healthy development of social economy can be promoted.