Research On The Effect Model Of The National Murder Rate On The Basis Of Panel Data

A stable social environment is needed for social development,and the crime rate is an important index to measure the stability of the society,so it has practical significance research surrounding the crime rate questions.In this thesis,we collected the related data of twenty countries from 2000 to 2010 years from the United Nations office on drugs and crime and the World Bank database website,established the effect analysis model based on the panel data to discuss the factor influence on the murder rate,and had carried out the following work:(1)We put the income gap and the unemployment rate as the independent variable,the murder rate as the dependent variable to establish individual fixed effect model on the basis of panel data,through the analysis found that the factors of effect is significant in the 2000 to 2010 period,but the influence degree present differences on the basis of different countries.(2)Institutions of higher education enrollment rate as a moderator to establish the moderating effect model,the analysis found that the influence of the income gap and the colleges and higher education enrollment rate on the murder rates is difference,and the moderating effect of the colleges and higher education enrollment rate is also difference.(3)We put the income gap as the dependent variable,the murder rate as the independent variable,the higher education enrollment rate as the moderator and the unemployment rate as the mediator to establish the moderated mediator model and the mediated moderator model,and analysis found that the influence degree and path of each variable on the murder rate are differences between countries.(4)Considering unemployment and income disparity has time lag impact on the crime rate,its data were lead and lag treatment,analysis show that the income gap and unemployment have a positive impact on murder rates after the data processing,and the path of the income gap and the unemployment rate affect the murder rates are difference in the mediation effect model.This study shows that the factors affect the crime rate are differences between countries,provide a certain basis for the governments in the formulation and adjustment of policies.