The Study Of Correlation Between Sino-philippine Political Relation And Trade Since The Establishment Of Diplomatic Relations

After cold war,international security situation is moving towards relaxation,but international conflicts still break out from time to time.In the context of economic globalization and relaxation of relations between East and West countries,destinies of nations is closely connected with international market,the economic interests of countries is also more closely interconnected,mutual penetration and interaction between international economics and politics becoming more visible,the relationship between trade cooperation and international conflicts raise the researchers’ attention gradually.Does political events have effect on bilateral trade?Will the promotion of bilateral trade mutual dependency lead to a more friendly bilateral relationship between trading partners?Will the increasing bilateral exchanges or trade asymmetry comes along with bilateral trade lead to increasing political conflict and alienation of political relations between countries?The question of whether there is mutual influence between political conflicts and economic relationship between countries has been debated in academia.Being neighboring country,the friendly relations between China and Philippines had a long history,and the two countries have long maintained a friendly atmosphere of political relations.With the start-up of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area and the rapid economic development of both sides,trade volume between China and Philippines has been rising and economic and trade relations have become increasingly close,and the two countries have gradually formed multi-field and multi-channel economic cooperation.However,in recent years,due to President Aquino’s radical positions in diplomatic relations with China,China’s large-scale land reclamation project at the reefs of the South China Sea and the growing geopolitical power struggle between China and the United States,South China Sea issue have created increasingly fierce controversy between China and the Philippines,bilateral relations have been seriously damaged,and it was once cooled to the lowest point since 1975,when the two countries established diplomatic ties.Until the new government came to power in 2016,Sino-Philippine relations began to normalize again.There is a prominent contradiction between the deterioration of Sino-Philippine political relations and rapid development of bilateral trade driven by market force,thus,China and the Philippines is an ideal pair of countries to observe the relationship between political relations and bilateral trade.Confined to the availability of data,the study selected political event data and bilateral trade data between Chinese and Philippines to carry out empirical research,which founds out the political relations between China and Philippines have a significant impact on bilateral trade,Sino-Philippine bilateral trade also have an impact on the political relations of the two countries,but its impact is relatively small.In addition,the study also found that the Philippine political conflict behavior has been less affected by itself and bilateral trade,and it’s response to political conflict behavior initiated by China is relatively large,the results show that to some extent the Philippines is not a state with enough economy rationality,and its political behavior has performed high alert,extreme sensitivity and overreaction to Chinese political conflict behavior.Finally,this paper puts forward some policy suggestions on the development of bilateral economic and trade cooperation combining the new trends in the development of China and Philippines’ domestic and bilateral political relations.