The Study On “Three Predictions ” Of American Military Officer Evans Carlson When He Was In China

Carlson, who used to be a United States Marine Corps officer, is one of the best friends of Chinese. In July 1937, as the first foreign military observer for The Eighth Route Army, he arrived at anti-Japanese base area which was behind enemy lines. In the following 8 months,he made a perilous journey of more than 8000 miles through Yan'an City and other anti-Japanese base areas in the north, met leaders from both the Communist Party and the Nationalist Party, experienced plenty of battles, repeatedly crossed the Japanese blockade lines and fully understood what had happened in the battle areas. Through field trips,Carlson came up with three predictions which turned out to be true. He learned the determination and convictions of Chinese people. Even though Japanese had modern weapons and captured lots of cities, there were some limitations for their battles. The Eighth Route Army took varieties of guerrilla warfare to start fighting of attrition in captured areas and gradually expanded sphere of influence. Carlson also saw hope and future from the Communist Party and The Eighth Route Army and was convinced that people who fight for their nation are impossible to be defeated. At the same time, Carlson generally got a further consideration and concern for Japanese aggression in Asia. He realized that with the process of aggression, Japan's ambition to seek hegemony over the world was getting more and more obvious. If Japan controlled the economy and population of China, it would be a great advantage for Japan to start a war against USA from the sea, so Carlson suggested Roosevelt a couple of times that more attention must bepaid to Japan. Carlson had a great contribution to Chinese AntiJapanese War. His objective reports publicized the truth of Anti- Japanese War and helped Chinese win the sympathy and support of American people. Meanwhile, his reports made important contributions to helping the Communist Party receive international assistance. At present time, it has a great realistic significance to learn Carlson's three predictions to fight back against Japan's right-wing forces' whitewashing and denying of it's crime-hidden history.