Research On Risk Measurement And Risk Influencing Factors Of Chinese Artwork Investment

After decades of development, art investment market has become an important part of the investment field in our country.Especially in the past decade,Chinese art market has been expanding it an surprising speed,financial products based on artwork,such as art fund、art trust、art insurance products and so on,has been increasing rich and complex.As art financialization degree deepens,the risk of investment is also increasing.Effectively measuring the art investment risk and finding out the factors of influencing investment risk,and using model predictive for art investment plays an important role in investing artwork.At present, the domestic academic artwork article about quantitative study is less,the art of the related theory and policy research does not match with the rapid development of the art market.In this paper, by analyzing the basic theory of art investment risk, It points out that the macroeconomic factors and the traditional financial assets are the important factors which affect gains of art investment.Economy development has a strong influence on art prices.Economic growth expanding earners overall wealth, it is the direct source of art investment.Real economic development is the most important factor which influences the price of artwork, and it provides support for the art market prosperity for a long time.The money supply plays the boosting role in the art market prices.Under the background of globalization and opening, the exchange rate adjust the relative price of artwork between two countries, international currencies exchange rate has stronger influences on artwork prices. In addition, as capital goods, the inner relationship between artwork and financial markets is also very close in the short term. The stock market fluctuations impacting on prices is stronger than the bond market and the real-estate market.The result of this part shows that wealth effect and the substitution effect is more obvious.This article uses Chinese art auction market data to construct Chinese art index.It results show that Chinese art market is discussed the inherent characteristics of the return on investment of time sequence and time series of Chinese art yield rates with strong since the correlation. By the method of traditional Va R risk measurement model, the empiricalpart of this study carries on Chinese artwork investment yields risk.And the results show that the Va R method of Chinese artwork investment yield risk measurement has strong applicability.GARCH model can better predict the yield of volatility. Finally,according to the research conclusion,combining with the characteristics of the art market in China,policy suggestions of promoting art investment market are given.