Trend Analysis And Prediction Study Of Malignant Tumor Burden In Wuwei Region

Objective: By analyzing the burden of cancer in Wuwei,Gansu Province,the basic data for discovering the ranking of common malignant tumors in the region is provided;by analyzing the trends and predictions of common malignancy burdens,the reference data for the control of malignant tumors is provided.Moreover,the reference data for evaluating prevention effects is also provided.Methods: Descriptive research were applied to collect cancer surveillance data from 2004 to 2014 in Wuwei.Cancer morbidity and mortality were used as indicators of disease burden.Software named Joinpoint was used to analyze the trend of tumor morbidity and mortality.The gray model,the Joinpoint regression and the dynamic series were used to select and optimize the models for incidence and death trends of malignancy,gastric cancer,and esophageal cancer during all 11 years in the region.Predictive studies of tumor changes were performed.Results: 1.Cancer morbidity and mortality in the Wuwei area began to rise in the 45-year-old age group and increased with age.The incidence and mortality of male malignant tumors were significantly higher than that of females after the age of 40,and the 60-65-year-old group had a high incidence of cancer morbidity and mortality.2.The ASR-C incidence rate of malignant tumors in Wuwei district was 250.79/100,000 from 2004 to 2014,and the ASR-C mortality rate of that was 166.16/100,000.Males were higher than females.3.The top 10 malignant tumor incidence in Wuwei area from 2004 to 2014 was gastric cancer,esophageal cancer,lung cancer,liver cancer,colorectal cancer,breast cancer,cervical cancer,lymphoma,brain cancer,and leukemia.The top ten death ranks are gastric cancer,esophageal cancer,liver cancer,lung cancer,colorectal cancer,breast cancer,cervical cancer,gallbladder cancer,and leukemia.4.The ASR-C incidence of gastric cancer in Wuwei district during the period from 2004 to 2014 was 94.43 per 100,000,and the ASR-C rate was 64.41 per 100 000.The incidence and death of males were three times higher than females.The ASR-C incidence of esophageal cancer is 39.24 per 100 000,the ASR-C mortality rate is 27.85 per 100 000,and the incidence of men is three times that of women.5.The trend of malignant tumor incidence and death in Wuwei district from 2004 to 2014 is increasing year by year,the trend of mortality of gastric cancer is decreasing,and the incidence and mortality of colorectal cancer is increasing rapidly.6.The Joinpoint linear regression model has the highest prediction accuracy in the incidence of total cancer incidence,cancer mortality,gastric cancer incidence,gastric cancer mortality,and esophageal cancer incidence.The gray model had better prediction accuracy in esophageal cancer mortality than the other two methods.The dynamic sequence was inferior to the other two methods in fitting prediction accuracy.7.The forecast results show that the cancer incidence and mortality rate,gastric cancer incidence,gastroesophageal morbidity and mortality rate will all increase in 2015-2019.Among them,the mortality rate of gastric cancer will show a downward trend.Conclusions: 1.The situation of malignant tumors in the Wuwei area is severe and the cancer incidence and mortality will continue to increase.The increase in the burden of cancer due to aging should begin to be emphasized.2.The cancer burden caused by upper gastrointestinal cancer in Wuwei area accounts for more than 50% of the cancer burden in the region.3.The mortality rate of gastric cancer in Wuwei District showed a downward trend,which may be due to the screening of endoscopic cancers in this region.The results confirmed that more indepth epidemiological studies are needed.4.The Joinpoint regression in this study was superior to the other two methods in predicting tumor incidence and mortality.