Colorectal Cancer Model And Evaluation

Colorectal cancer(CRC)has become one of the major threats to the life and health of the Chinese people.It is responded to colorectal cancer mainly includes cancer screening and cancer treatment in the international.In order to reduce the harm caused by cancer,all countries are trying to build a screening strategy that suits their country's national conditions.They hope to reduce the prevalence and mortality of colorectal cancer by building mathematical models.However,China's national conditions are complex,and the colorectal cancer screening program still needs further targeted research.For this reason,this article aims at the situation of urban residents in China and builds a mathematical model of colorectal cancer.This paper mainly uses the existing literature data to construct the natural history model and screening model based on the Markov chain,and explores screening programs that can reduce the prevalence and mortality of colorectal cancer through experimental simulation.Specific work research and contributions are as follows:(1)Present the natural history model of colorectal cancer.The Markov chain-based model describes in detail the natural history of colorectal cancer,including precancerous conditions and post-cancerous conditions.The lognormal distribution was used to characterize the heterogeneity of the individual's cancer risk.(2)A cancer screening program based on partial observations was proposed.The results of the previous screening were taken into account when determining the screening interval in this screening program,and this result is partially visible.In addition,this paper constructs a new cost-effectiveness indicator—Incremental Costs for per CRC Prevention,ICPCP.(3)Monte Carlo experiment simulation.First,the model of natural history of colorectal cancer was calibrated,followed by basic analysis and sensitivity analysis.Fundamental analysis is the economic evaluation of multiple screening strategies through simulation.Sensitivity analysis analyzes the sensitivity of screening participation to cost-effectiveness when screening for changes in participation.Finally,this paper gives a complete model construction,model calibration and sensitivity analysis to provide guidance for colorectal cancer and other cancer species workers.