Status Of Cancer Incidence And Mortality In Hebei Province,2014 And Incidence Prediction For The Main Cancers

Objective: The disease burden of malignant tumor is increasing gradually in China and it has become one of the public health problems which threatened the lives and health of the whole population.According to the latest data from the National Central Cancer Registry,in China,the estimates of new cancer cases and cancer related deaths were 3686 thousands and 2229 thousands in 2013,respectively.The population in Hebei Province is accounting for 5.40% in the whole population in China.In 2013,there were estimated 164.1 thousands new cancer cases and 105.2 thousands cancer related deaths,which accounting for 4.46% and 4.72% of new cancer cases and deaths in China,respectively.Cixian and Shexian were the high-risk areas of upper gastric cancer in China,even in the world.The cancer burden in Hebei Province is not be ignored.It is urgent to understand the incidence and mortality rates in Hebei Province timely and accurately,master the incidence characteristics and predate the incidence trend of the main cancers.The aim of the study was to analysis the cancer burden in 2014 and we also predict the incidence trend of main cancers in Hebei Province.Methods:Registration data in 2014 and Hebei Province from 31 cancer registries were evaluated according to the criteria of quality control from NCCR and 25 registration date were qualified as pooled data for final analysis.The software of CanReg,IARCcrgTools and the statistical software of SAS were performed to collecting and analysis data from the 25 cancer registration areas.Individual cases were stratified by areas(urban/rural),gender,age group and other relative variables.Incidence and mortality rates of cancer were estimated by the whole population in Hebei Province,2014.The Chinese population census in 2000 and Segi's population were used to calculate the age-standardized incidence/mortality rates.The Joinpoint Regression Program software was applied to analysis the age-standardized incidence/ mortality rates in Hebei Province.We fitted the population data from 2009 to 2014 in Hebei Province and apply the Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort Modeling and Prediction(BAMP)to predict the incidence trend of the main cancers in Hebei Province from 2015 to 2017.Results:In 2014,Office of Cancer Prevention and Control of Hebei Province collected a total of 31 cancer registries data from January 1st to December 31.The data form 25 cancer registries met the quality standard and the data were enrolled by Office of Cancer Prevention and Control of Hebei Province for final analysis.In Hebei Province,the percentage of cases morphologically verified(MV%),death certificate-only cases(DCO %)and the mortality to incidence rate ratio(M/I)were 71.30%,3.98% and 0.66,respectively.The coverage population were 15448806,including 7864154 males and 7584652 females,according for 21.22% of the whole population in Hebei Province,which was the year of the highest coverage rate.In 2014,the new cancer cases were 34756 in Hebei Provincial cancer registries and the crude incidence rate(CIR)was 224.98/105,(urban was 223.67/105,rural was 225.56/105),the age-standardized incidence rates by Chinese and Segi's standard population(ASIRC/ASIRW)were 182.46/105 and 181.98/105;the CIR in male was 248.66/105,the ASIRC and ASIRW were 208.09/105 and 209.23/105,the CIR,ASIRC and ASIRW in females were 200.42/105,159.31/105 and 156.88/105,respectively.According to the data from cancer registries,the estimated new cancer cases in whole Hebei Province were 166120,including 93300 males and 72820 females.All the incidence variables in males were higher than the values for females.The highest incidence rate of cancers was lung cancer,the next were gastric cancer,liver cancer,esophageal cancer and breast cancer.There were 23084 cancer related deaths in Hebei Provincial cancer registries,2014.The crude mortality rate(CMR)was 149.42/105(urban was 151.01/105,rural was148.71/105).The age-standardized mortality rates by Chinese and Segi's standard population(ASMRC/ASMRW)were 122.11/105 and 122.42/105.The CMR,ASMRC and ASMRW were 186.70/105,159.27/105 and 159.20/105 in males and 110.78/105,87.32/105 and 87.81/105,respectively.According to the data from cancer registries,the estimated related deaths in whole province were 110300,including 70050 males and 40250 females.All the mortality variables in males were higher than the values for females.Lung cancer was the first leading cause of death in Hebei Province,subsequent were gastric cancer,liver cancer,esophageal cancer and colorectum cancer.From 2015 to 2017,the incidence rates of all cancer sites were 183.37/105,184.66/105 and 184.54/105,estimated annual percent change(EAPC)was 0.06.Lung cancer prediction incidence rates were 42.76/105,43.63/105 and 45.10/105,EAPC was 2.30.Gastric cancer prediction incidence rates were 26.81/105,26.42/105 and 26.21/105,EAPC was-0.84.Liver cancer prediction incidence rates were 17.82/105,18.44/105 and 18.83/105,EAPC was 1.28.Esophageal cancer prediction incidence rates were 15.27/105,14.89/105 and 14.50/105,EAPC was-1.99.Breast cancer prediction incidence rates were 27.67/105,28.00/105 and 28.40/105,EAPC was 1.35.Conclusion:The CIR and CMR in Hebei Province were 224.98/105 and 149.42/105,the estimated new cancer cases and deaths were 166 thousand and 110 thousand in Hebei Province,respectively.The main cancers were lung cancer,gastric cancer,liver cancer,esophageal cancer and breast cancer.The incidence rates of esophagus cancer and gastric cancer are decreasing,and the total incidence rate and the rates of lung cancer,liver cancer and breast cancer present an increasing trend in Hebei Province.The burden is heavy and the task for preventing and controlling cancer is also heavy in Hebei Province.It is needed that carrying out the prevention and control cancer activities pointedly and relieving the disease burden of malignant tumor in Hebei Province.