The Predictive Value Of Physical Performance For Falls In Tianjin Elderly

Objectives: This study aims to investigate the health of the elderly over the age of 60 in the suburb of Tianjin and master the status of the elderly physical performance, explore its correlation with falls in order to establish the rehabilitation and screening tool for elderly. In that way, it would help us protect elderly from falls, improve their quality of life and increase the life expectancy.Methods: first, we looked up related literature to have a comprehensive understanding of the timed up-and-go test(TUGT), grip strength and walking speed for falls. We conducted a cross-sectional study of 1092 suburb-dwelling in Hangu, Tianjin, which were over 60 years old, the average age was 67.35 ± 5.93 years old and 589 females and 503 males are included. We collected the relative information about the questionnaire, such as age, sex, marital status, smoking, drinking, daily activity, depression and the history of chronic disease. The mobility, balance and muscle strength were assessed by walking speed, timed up-and-go test and grip strength. The subjects were divided into two groups according to whether he or she falls in past 1 year. Second, we collected the relative information again, and observed fall event to find out if the physical performance test can predict falls in elderly.Result: In the first year, the timed up-and-go test, grip strength and walking speed were all correlated with falls. When the timed up-and-go test spent less than 9.1750 s, it has the strongest association with falls in three physical tests. When the combination of two physical tests was examined, the combination of timed up-and-go test spent less than 9.1750 s and walking speed slower than 0.9963 m/s was the most representative of falls after adjusting for age, sex and other variables. Among the TUGT, WS, GS and their combinations, the combination of timed up-and-go test spent less than 9.1750 s, walking speed slower than 0.9963 m/s and grip strength larger than 0.3816 was most representative of falls. After one year follow up, we found the combination of timed up-and-go test spent less than 9.0350 s, walking speed faster than 0.9768 m/s and grip strength larger than 0.3671 had the lowest rate(6.45%) of fall after 12 months; the combination of timed up-and-go test spent longer than 9.0350 s, walking speed faster than 0.9768 m/s and grip strength less than 0.3671 had the highest rate(20.83%) of fall after 12 months.Conclusion: The combination of better timed up-and-go test performance, larger grip strength and slower walking speed is strongly associated with falls. After 12 months, the combination of better timed up-and-go test performance, larger grip strength and faster walking speed could predict lowest fall rate and the combination of worse timed up-and-go test performance, less grip strength and faster walking speed could predict highest fall rate.