| In this paper, the eastern agricultural area of Qinghai province was taken as the research area due to agriculture meteorology drought. The temporal and spatial variation characteristics and risk assessment of meteorological drought in the area was analyzed. According to the meteorological data based on the research area of 12 meteorological stations from 1961 to 2006, the study area precipitation and aridity,comprehensive meteorological drought index, and other meteorological factors were analyzed in terms of the maximum entropy model. Risk assessment of agrometeorological drought was conducted in the study area. The vulnerability distribution of spring wheat planting in eastern Qinghai was obtained. The main findings are as following:(1) The precipitation in the study area showed a trend of developing to the southeast and northwest, and the total precipitation decreased gradually from northwest to southeast. During the study period, the annual precipitation variation range was between 295-570mm, showing a decreasing trend with the increase of time.The precipitation was very uneven distribution of precipitation during the year, mainly concentrated in July and August. The precipitation was less from November to March.(2) The study area southeast and Northwest Dryness position showed first increased and then decreased, the dryness changed greatly, changes in the range of 1.5-3.1, showing an increasing trend with time increasing. From the drying of the monthly change in the study area, the dry degree from July to September was relatively small, while the dry degree from November to March was larger. The drought intensity in the middle of the study area was higher than that in other areas,and the drought duration was longer in the southern region.(3) The spring drought in the study area had a greater intensity, with the passage of time, there was a trend of increasing intensity and duration. In summer, the drought intensity of the study area was relatively small, and there was a strong drought event in successive years. In autumn, the drought intensity in the study area showed a trend of increasing year by year, and the frequency of drought was higher. In the southern part of the study area, the drought events were more likely to occur in autumn, and the drought duration was longer. Drought intensity smaller in the study area, showing the intensity of drought event likelihood increased year by year, the central part of the study area were more susceptible to winter drought continues for a long time, and the central and southern drought.(4) The study area could be divided into semi humid, semi arid, arid and arid regions with the combination of the two indexes of aridity and precipitation, which could be divided into four zones. Semi humid and humid areas in a few months to produce less water surplus, other months would be a slight loss of water, crop growth by meteorological drought less affected. In the semi-arid, semi arid and arid regions of the study area, the water loss in different degrees occurred in each month, and the crop growth was seriously affected by the meteorological drought. In view of this situation,we should strengthen the effective prevention of rainwater collection and utilization,take catchment irrigation mode, reasonable implementation and configuration and application technology for water saving measures such as the implementation of meteorological drought in the study area.(5) The climate vulnerability of spring wheat in the eastern agricultural region of Qinghai is greatly affected by the local precipitation conditions. The analysis shows that the climate vulnerability of spring wheat in Minhe Guide and Gonghe provinces is higher, the ability to cope with climate change is poor, and the risk of agrometeorological disasters increases. In spring wheat planting, we should pay attention to the adverse effects of spring drought, innovate agricultural irrigation measures, and raise the level of agricultural irrigation. |
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