Economic Analysis Of The Impact Of Climate Change On Agriculture In China

Global climate change has become a recognized fact, warming as its main feature is spreading and increasing.Climate change pose serious challenges to sustainable economic development, therefore, stabilize production and ensure economic security is a priority.Due to the special nature of agriculture in growth properties, compared with other industries, its production is affected by technology and crop varieties,climatic factor is also a key factor,which exacerbated the instability of agricultural production.Thus, the empirical analysis of the impact of climate change on agriculture,not only has extremely important practical significance for the objective evaluation of the the past and predict the impact of future climate change on agricultural production and food production in the country,but also help the agricultural sector to develop policy to mitigate and adapt to climate change, as well as provide economic basis for the prices fluctuations of agricultural products and food security under the background of climate change.In this context, this paper based on 160 site data from National Meteorological Center and related data from National Bureau of Statistics.On the basis of existing research,firstly,briefly describe the feature of climate change and agricultural output and its development status,and quantitatively analyze the impact of meteorological disasters on agriculture.Secondly,from both two aspects impact of climate change on agricultural output value and rice production to analyze the impact of climate change on agriculture in China,so as to provide policy reference for the government and farmers to boost agricultural production and ensure food security.This paper consists of six chapters.The first chapter is the introduction, describe the research background and content, elaborate research ideas, research methods and data sources, discuss the possible innovations and shortcomings of this paper.The second chapter clarify definitions and theory, introduce the research status of home and abroad on climate change, provide a theoretical basis and methods for reference.The third chapter mainly draw a statistical description on features of climate change, the output value of China and its development status,then quantitatively analyze the impact of meteorological disasters, analysis found that agricultural production, especially rice production easily affected by changes in temperature and precipitation, drought and floods are the main agricultural meteorological disasters affecting agricultural production;both the total agricultural output value and food production in our country is growing, rice production is the main component of food production; meteorological disasters have a negative impact on China’s agriculture.Chapter four using C-D production function model to analyze the impact of climate change on China’s agricultural output value, the findings indicate that climate change has a significant impact on China’s total agricultural output value and appear an inverted U-shaped relationship;The total sown area of crops, fertilizer inputs, technical progress is an important factor affecting the total agricultural output value,investment in machinery and labor inputs have a negative impact on agricultural output.The fifth chapter constructing a translog production to research the effects of climate change on rice yield,the results show that temperature and precipitation, sown area,machinery investment, technological progress can significantly promoting rice yield,while the fertilizer inputs and labor inputs is negative.The sixth chapter reviews the conclusion and put forward corresponding countermeasures.