The Research On The Forest Disease And Insect Pests Spatial Forecast

The paper mainly discussed spatial forecasting of Monochamus alternatus infestation in Lushan District, Jiujiang City, Jiangxi Province by GIS technology and information value model. Through survey and monitoring to overlay analysis the pest situation and habitat factors. Not only preparation of the map of the hazard of Monochamus alternatus on different damaged degrees, but also build of a spatial forecasting model. The main results were as follows:(1) According to forest resource inventory data for management, forest resource map, Jiangxi Province Forest Disease and Insect Pests Prevention and Quarantine Office and field surveys collected by Monochamus alternatus distribution data over the years, damage degree map, the over years weather data that provided by Jiangxi Provincial Meteorological Office Lushan District automatic meteorological stations, topographic map, GPS data, and remote sensing images, a GIS database and Digital Elevation Model of Lushan District were built.(2) Topographic factors had some impact on the occurrence of insect pests, the occurrence of insect pests showed a decreasing trend in the slopes, steep, acute slope, dangerous slope area, in sunny slope, semi sunny slope area is more serious than in shady slope, semi shady slope area, and ease with the increase of altitude. The occurrence of insect pests was closely related to the forest stand conditions, soil and climatic factors. Pest was concentrated on the dominant species in coniferous areas, forest land and open forest land area, young and middle-aged forest area, canopy density relatively large area, red soil area, thick soil area. The number of insect pest occurrence decreases with the decrease of the average annual temperature.(3) The paper used the GIS spatial overlay technology, according to the principle of multi factor information summation formula got the amount of information of each grid cell in Lushan District, and then took it as the basis for classification of dangerous degree of Lushan District(5 rating points severe, moderate, mild, slightly degrees and almost no disaster zone), completed the forecasting of Monochamus alternatus disaster in space, and through the study identified in the study area Monochamus alternatus harmful levels and locations. The precision of forecasting can be up to 80.74% which indicated by the forecasting model. The model can be used to forecast the future of the pest Monochamus alternatus in Lushan District.