Injury Severity Analysis Of Vehicle And Motorcycle Rollover Crashes

Rollover crash is the main form of fatal crashes.At present,there were only few studies on motor vehicle rollover crashes,especially on the motorcycle rollover crashes which have been proved to be more likely to cause severe injury outcome.Thus,the rollover crash deserves the attention of relevant scholars.Based on the above background,the paper used crash data in Michigan from 2005 to 2014 to conduct the research of motor vehicle and motorcycle rollover crashes.The paper aims to explore the significant factors influencing injury severity of motor vehicle and motorcycle rollover crashes,and compare the similarities and differences between the variables(factors),then to enhance the understanding of rollover crashes.According to these significant influencing factors,the research put forward corresponding suggestions or countermeasures to reduce the occurrence of motor vehicle and motorcycle crashes,and mitigate the severity of the two kinds of rollover crashes.At first,this paper adopted the method of describing statistical analysis to understand the characteristics of the motor vehicle and motorcycle rollover crashes comparably,and explored the potential factors influencing injury severity resulting from the two kinds of rollover crashes.Then,the generalized ordered logit model was employed to identify the significant factors contributing to the injury severities of two types of rollover crashes.The results clearly indicated the similarities and difference of the two kinds of crashes.A total of 34 factors were found to be significant only in the vehicle model,such as being fatigue and sleepiness,drug,overspeed,distraction and the use of mobile phones,wet roads,and no illumination at night,etc.7 factors were found to be significant only in the motorcycle model,such as: closing to the car,rural branch road,dry road surface,evening peak,etc.In addition,8 factors were found to be significant in both model,such as young drivers,drinking,emergency shelter,traffic violation,urban high-grade road,etc.Then,the marginal effects of each significant factor were calculated,and the influence law of each significant factor influencing the injury severities was analyzed.Finally,this research put forward corresponding suggestions and countermeasures to prevent the occurrence of the two kinds of rollover crashes and mitigate the injury severity,in aspects of driver,vehicle,road and environment factors in four aspects.