Research On The Relationship Between Threat And Error Of Civil Aviation Based On Bayesian Model

With the development of civil aviation in China,the number of regular flight has gradually increased.Safety is the basement for sustainable and healthy development of the civil aviation,and it's also an important foundation of advanced civil aviation.With the rapid development of civil aviation,safety has caused lots of attention,which is the key to civil aviation.The study on Statistical data of accident and incident is an important method to reduce the rate of accident and incident.Appropriate measures have been proposed to reduce the rate of accident and incident by analyzing accident and incident statistical data.The paper studied on the relationship among threat,error and undesired aircraft status.Firstly,according to ICAO DOC 9868 and LOSA,the paper classified threat,error,undesired aircraft status during flight.And then 11 threats,14 crew errors,and 3 undesired aircraft statuses were identified.Secondly,according to the classification of threat and error,the statistics of accidents and incidents during 2006-2011 were coded.The coded statistical data was converted into quantitative data which could be used to explore the relationship among threat,error and undesired aircraft status.Thirdly,a Bayesian network model was constructed which consists of 6 threats,6 errors,and 2 undesired aircraft statuses.And then the validity of model was verified.This paper has explored the relationship among threat,error and undesired aircraft status by the Bayesian network model.At the same time,The Bayesian network model provides a method to explore the relationship between threat and error.