Research On Probabilistic Unit Commitment Considering Complex Error Characteristics Of Wind Power

As a kind of clean energy,the penetration rate of wind power in the power grid is getting higher and higher.Wind power is uncertain,volatile,intermittent and anti-peaking,so that large-scale wind power brings huge challenge to the grid.At present,the accuracy of wind power prediction is not high,which makes the operation cost of grid increase and plenty of wind power is abandoned.This paper finds that wind power prediction error is not a simple rule distribution,but a very complicated one.Therefore,this paper descripts a probability distribution of wind power prediction error,and then makes research on probabilistic power flow and probability unit combination based on this complex error characteristics of wind power.The main contents and results are as follows:1.Research on complex probabilistic distribution of wind power prediction error based on the complex nonlinear relation between wind speed and wind power.The results show that the probability distribution of the prediction error is very complicated,and there may be multi-peak characteristics,and also the distribution characteristics changes with the predicted wind speed,which is more reasonable than the existing research results.2.Research on the probabilistic power flow based on the probability distribution of wind power.Firstly,the influence of the above distribution on the selection of the probabilistic power flow is analyzed.Then,based on the analysis of different sampling methods,the improvement of the Latin hypercube sampling is put forward.Finally,the probabilistic power flow under the wind power error distribution is analyzed.3.Research on the probabilistic unit commitment based on the probability distribution of wind power.The scene sets to descript wind power error fluctuations are needed when using the scenario analysis method to establish a probabilistic unit commitment model.As for multi-wind farms adjacent to each other,the scene sets are generated based on Copula function to descript their relevance.Then,in the unit commitment research,the difference between the normal distribution and the complex error distribution is analyzed,and also the difference between correlation and non-correlation is analyzed.4.Research on probabilistic unit commitment based on an actual provincial power grid.Firstly,through the extraction,simplification and equivalent from the cross-section file of power flow in the grid,the information about node,unit,slip,wind power,load and others is integrated,and the initial provincial power grid model is established,which can provide the basis for the relevant research work.Taking the provincial grid as an example,the probability unit commitment is studied,and the advantage of the wind power the complex probability distribution is analyzed.