Urban Bus Arrival Time Quantitative Prediction System Development

With the rapid development of China's economy,the quality of people's life has been improved,and the demand for cars is also increasing,and urban traffic has almost reached saturation state.The traffic capacity of roads is facing enormous pressure.Traffic problems have become an important factor restricting the sustainable development of the city.Developing public transport is an important means to effectively enhance road capacity.Bus has the advantages of large carrying capacity,high transport efficiency,low energy consumption and relatively small relative pollution.It is recognized as one of the best solutions to solve urban traffic problems in the world.It is an effective way to improve the attraction of bus travel to solve urban traffic problems.The main content of this research is to develop the arrival time quantitative prediction system of city bus.Using the ideas and methods of software engineering,it uses GPS positioning technology,data preprocessing technology,database technology,Web development technology and software engineering related technology to realize the prediction and display of the bus arrival time of city bus.To provide comprehensive,reliable and timely bus information service for passengers,improve the attraction of urban buses and relieve the pressure of urban traffic.The specific content and results of the work are as follows:1.Collect real-time data of bus operation,analyze the error sources of data,reduce errors,improve the accuracy of data and avoid data pollution from the source.2.Based on the moving average method,the vehicle real-time speed dynamic adjustment method,the arrival time prediction method of the support vector machine and the BP neural network algorithm,the arrival time quantitative prediction model is constructed,and the factors affecting the arrival time are taken into consideration,and the arrival time is predicted.3.Based on real-time traffic information,bus history data and GIS data,a quantitative prediction database for the arrival time of urban buses is established to provide data support and support for the arrival time prediction work.According to the software engineering specification,the requirements and feasibility analysis of the system are completed,and the quantitative prediction system of bus arrival time is designed and developed.4.Based on the Baidu map API to realize the bus arrival time visualization,through the map to show the real-time position of the bus running on the line and the time to arrive at different stations.In this study,the data of bus are used to establish the database of the arrival time prediction system.The arrival time of the arrival time is predicted by the static and dynamic prediction model,and the bus arrival time quantitative prediction system is developed.The factors affecting the arrival time in this study are not comprehensive,and the function of the system is single,which needs further research and improvement.