Study On Operation Strategy Of Ice Storage Air-conditioning System Based On Load Forecasting

With the rapid development of urbanization,air conditioning electricity consumption account for more than 30% of peak electricity consumption in many cities,Which poses a serious threat to the power system.At present,the lack of energy resources and the increase in electricity peak and valley difference have become the most serious problem.Because of its peak load shifting,Ice storage technology receives the strong support from the government.Although the ice storage air-conditioning system has the very good social benefit and economic benefit,the complexity of the operation has seriously constrained its development.With specific project as the research base,therefore,the paper mainly studies the operation control strategy of ice storage air-conditioning system,and sets up the optimal configuration and operation strategy.Firstly,BP neural network load forecasting model is established.The paper uses principal component analysis to determine the main influencing factors: weather type,maximum temperature,minimum temperature,load type.Then the neural network is trained with load data,while the neural network structure and performance parameters are optimized by genetic algorithm.Through the comparative analysis of the predicted results and the real data,under the limited training samples,the accuracy of the prediction results will be greatly improved if the the neural network is dividied according to the load type.The maximum relative error of the predicted data can be controlled to 7.6%,and the NRMSE is 3.8%.It can be used to guide the optimal control strategy of the ice storage air-conditioning system.Secondly,this paper establishes the mathematical model of refrigeration units,distribution system and ice-storage equipment,and validates the model with test data.According to the optimization theory,the paper establishs the optimal mathematical model and solves it with dynamic programming method.According to the optimal control for 100%,75%,50%,25% of the design load,the ice storage system transfer rate is 63.5% in the peak period and the low power utilization rate is 39.8%.Finally,the static economic evaluation method is used to analysis the ice storage airconditioning system,which is based on the project case.The investment increases by 35.13 million yuan,and its operating cost reduces 7.652 million yuan.So the payback period is 4.59 years.The paper studies the ice storage air-conditioning system from the aspects of storage rate,load forecasting,optimization control,economy and so on.And it can provide guidance for the users.