Study On Water Resource Carrying Capacity In Nianchu River Basin

Water carrying capacity is the biggest capacity of eco-environments system bearing society-economy,expressed by population and GDP.The study of carrying capacity of water resources will supply scientific basis to solve the eco-environmental problems related to water and achieve the sustainable development of the river basins.Therefore,the study of water carrying capacity is a very important topic.The theory of studying the carrying capacity of water resources of a river basin is applied in Nianchu river basins.The main contents are the following:(1)Expound the usual methods of predicting and synthesized evaluation basing on the theory and means of water carrying capacity,describe the method of this article at the same time;(2)Choose 6 evaluation index.They are water resources per capita,water resources per mu,GDP per cubic meter can produce,precipitation –concentration time,development rate of water resources and water resources bearing degree.Based on these index,the model of multi-step associated evaluation was used to analyze the water resources in Nianchu river basin.The results shows that the water resources of Nianchu river is difficult to exploit.(3)By combing the index system evaluation method and interactive relation model,an evaluation model of basin water resources carrying capacity was constructed,which is applied to evaluate the current situation of Nianchu river basin.In this way,the model to quantify the water carrying capacity of the river basins is established.The water carrying capcacity now is evaluated by the model;(4)By analyzing the water carrying capacity of the representative year 2020 and 2030,the Water Resources-Environments-Society and economy system interactional model of the river basins can be applied to assess the level of sustainable development.The result describe a tense state of water resources and the environment should also be improved.Only in this situation,can the sustainable development be achieved.