Research On Prediction About Regional Industrial Load And Comprehensive Load

Power system load forecasting is the precondition of market transactions,power system dispatching operation,which forecast accuracy will affect the safe,reliable and economic operation of the power system.Until now,nearly not exist a method can solve every problem perfectly.So,how to improve the accuracy of load forecasting is a problem to be solved in the research of load foreca sting at home and abroad.In this paper,first of all,we will explain the meaning of the load forecast for power system,summarizes the domestic and foreign current situation of the development of power load forecasting,and summarized the methods for loa d forecasting.We carry out a deep research in Time series algorithm and Gray algorithm.The time sequence algorithm mainly involves the exponential smoothing method and the Gray algorithm we introduced most about GM(1,1)model.We also confirm the enterprise general trend of electrical load,which can help us build a good mathematical prediction models.Next,we build the time series prediction model and gr ay theory prediction model,using regional enterprise electricity and comprehensive utilization for example,for electricity behavior in 2013 to 2016 according to history records.Through the contract of the results and the real dates about the first quarter,we can confirm the final accurate model.And through the contract with the actual data in 2016 we can get the different models apply to enterprises and local comprehensive forecasting method for load forecasting.At the end of the paper we verify the models we build,and the results prove the correctness of the theory described.We can find that time se ries model is more suitable for the regional enterprise load forecasting and gr ay comprehensive load forecasting model is more suitable for the area.Also we give some proposals of regional power load forecasting.