Economic Dispatch Of Power System Considering Scenery Power Output Prediction Error

The development of clean energy,represented by wind and solar energy,has a positive role in protecting the environment and alleviating the crisis of fossil fuels.Accurate prediction of scenery power output can not only improve the utilization efficiency of clean energy,but also improve the reliability of power system economic dispatch.Therefore,it is very important to find a mathematical model which can accurately predict the output of scenery power,which has a positive influence on the utilization of clean energy and the stability of power system.This paper studies the economic dispatch of power system considering scenery power output prediction error and the main contents are as follows:First of all,this paper gives the analysis of wind scenery output forecasting method,and establishes a joint forecasting model based on BP neural network.The model not only simplifies the prediction method,improves the prediction accuracy and stability,but also predicts the output of wind farm and the output of PV power station.Secondly,this paper presents a new analysis method of scenery power output prediction error.The method is based on point prediction data for improving the accuracy of wind power and photovoltaic output point forecast,the method calculates the joint probability distribution of actual and predicted values of wind power and photovoltaic output using Copula function respectively,and analyzes historical data by clustering according to the type of weather and season respectively.The model for wind power and photovoltaic output forecast error is constructed respectively to improve the forecast accuracy.Meanwhile,the relevant characteristics of the wind farm and photovoltaic power station in each environment are considered to make the results more accurate.Lastly,case study based on a wind and solar station actual data of output,weather,time,etc.is carried out and results are compared with traditional forecasting methods to verify the accuracy of the model.Finally,an economic dispatch model of power system considering scenery power output prediction error is proposed.In this model,the uncertainty of scenerypower output is analyzed by the joint probability density function,at the same time,the density function and the complementary characteristics of scenery power output,and join the wind and photovoltaic power stations because of compensation and punishment cost caused by the inaccurate prediction model,which can improve the absorptive capacity of the scenery of the power system.The model can consider the influence of the difference between the predicted output and the actual output.To verify this method has positive influence on improving the power system the consumptive ability of scenery by the simulation of power system scheduling model including wind farm and photovoltaic power station.