Impact Of Route Guidance Information On Road Network Capacity Reliability

Road network capacity is the macro manifestation of the traffic supply.The reliability of the road network capacity reflects its stability,and that is the probability of the road network successfully finishing its function and task(bearing a certain amount of traffic demand),refers to the topology of road network and the traveler’s route choice behavior,while traffic supply and traffic demand is bi-directionally and randomly fluctuating.The route guidance information provided by Advanced Traveler Information System impacts the traveler’s route choice behavior,then has a certain influence on the road network capacity reliability,so how to determine the influence degree of the route guidance information on the reliability of road network capacity is a practical and significance research.First of all,in order to study the impact of route guidance information on the reliability of road network capacity,the travelers are divided into two classes: travelers equipped with ATIS and travelers unequipped with ATIS,then the mixed stochastic route choice behavior model and the bi-level programming model about network reserve capacity are constructed,according to the influence of the quality level of route guidance information and the market penetration of route guidance device on the reliability of network capacity.And the upper-lever problem of the bi-level problem determines the maximum the OD demand multiplier under the constraints of link capacities,the lower planning of the model is a mixed stochastic user equilibrium assignment,then an algorithm based on Continuous average method and incremental method is built for solving the bi-level programming model about reserve capacity.And on this basis,the randomness analysis of traffic demand is described and the algorithm of evaluation model based on Monte Carlo simulation method is established.Secondly,an example is presented to test the build model and the algorithm,whose result show that a negative correlation between the reliability of road network capacity and the information quality,as well as the market penetration.When the information quality fixed,the reliability of road network capacity decreases with the increasing of the market penetration;moreover when the market penetration fixed,it decreases with the increasing of the information quality;if both of the them keep in a lower level,the reliability of road network capacity will get better,otherwise it gets worse.On the whole,the reliability of road network capacity decrease gradually with the increasing of route guidance information and the market penetration of route guidance device,the two both have a marginal decreasing effect on the reliability of road network capacity.A conclusion is obtain in this thesis under the ideal condition that the traveler accept the route guidance information(the shortest path information)only,this information shows a dual character to the traffic system.On the one hand,it contributes to travelers’ route choices which decreases the travel time;on the other hand,it has a negative effect on the reliability of road network capacity.The results have significant and positive effect on the level of traffic planning and management,the future of the Advanced Traveler Information System and the utilization of the road network.