Electric Power System Planning In Eastern China Based On Interval Recourse Linear Optimization

With the further development of economy and the improvement of the people of living standards,power consumption in eastern China are growing rapidly,resulting in increasingly prominent on power supply and demand.Power industry is the main driving force for the rapid development of social economy,so that eastern China is facing the great challenges of reduction of air pollutants,power supply adjustment and power scheduling.Thus,rational planning of power system is of vital importance to the sustainable development of eastern China.Based on the complex relationship between energy,environment and economy,this study develops a eastern China electric power optimization model,which provides scientific and effective technical support for power system planning in eastern China,and promotes the coordinated development of economy,energy and environment in eastern China.This study takes the stochastic characteristics of power demand of eastern China into account,analyzes the characteristics of power consumption in eastern China and the factors affecting the power consumption,collects historical data of power consumption and influencing factors of each province in eastern China for more than 20 years,and uses the forecasting method of neural network fitting to forecast the demand of electricity in eastern China.The results show that the training model can make error of the test results and historical collected electricity consumption small,the demand for electricity in each province of East China will grow significantly during the planning period,which can be applied to the power system planning model in the planning period of eastern China to get a series of accurate optimization results.Reasonable combination of power demand forecasting and power system planning can not only improve the feasibility and accuracy of system planning results,but also reflect the uncertainties in power system planning,and help decision-makers to deal with problems of electricity supply and demand,power structure adjustment and capacity expansion scientifically.In this study,by understanding and grasping the uncertainty and complexity characteristics of the power system in eastern China,combining the current situation of power system structure,energy resource supply,power supply and demand,power dispatch and environmental quality in East China and the development of power system in the region.The dynamic optimization model of power system in eastern China,which aims at maximizing the profit of the system,is established by using the interval recourse linear programming method.The model effectively deals with the problems of power production,capacity expansion,resource supply,Power scheduling problem and pollution reduction problem.The model results can provide reasonable and scientific decision support for power system planning in eastern China.Based on the power system planning model of eastern China,the multi-scenario analysis method is used to compare the system power production,system profit,power dispatch and air pollutant emission in different emission reduction control scenarios.The results show that the eastern China power system optimization model with multi-scenario analysis can reflect the influence of different emission reduction policies on power generation and power dispatching.The developed power system planning in eastern China in study shows that power structure adjustment is the main direction of power industry optimization in East China,shutting down small thermal power units,reducing the proportion of thermal power and developing clean energy,which provide scientific and effective technical support for energy,economy and environment sustainable development in eastern China.With the completion of a number of major industrial projects in the "13th Five-Year Plan" period,the demand for electricity and energy will continue to grow rapidly.At present,if the thermal power-based energy structure is not further adjusted and optimized,the demand for fossil energy such as coal will remain rigidly increased.The environmental protection problems arising from energy production and consumption will become increasingly prominent,and energy development will face major environmental carrying capacity challenges.