Research On Gray Prediction And Structure Optimization Model For Electric Power Industry In Shanxi Province

Energy resources that human being consume in the nature has a soaring increase ratio with the impact of growing number of urban and town population.And under this long-term circumstance,the unreasonable structure of energy consumption has caused series of environment burden,such as acid rain,greenhouse effect and haze and the other extreme weather condition have become more and more terrible.Gradually,the form of energy demand turned into another one which is called energy crisis.Electrical power system,as one of the most important factors of energy consumption,plays a vital role in the regional energy-economy sustainable development.Therefore,it is of great significance to carry out the research on electric power and environment planning in a timely manner,which take the improvement of the energy-saving and emission-reducing potential as first step and the character of energy utilization analyze as solve measure in order to adapt the planning target of accelerating the planning of green energy transformation.This study take Shanxi Province as the research object,through the full range of identification of the power industry structure and resource characteristic,based on Gray,Unbiased Gray and Gray-Markov chain three forecasting model contrast,to prove which method is higher connection with historical data.And as for reducing system complexities and uncertainties,an interval fixed-mix multi-stage stochastic programming model is developed for supporting management programming and analyzing the effects of different coal resources control and pollution mitigation scenarios.And a robust stochastic programming model is proposed to deal with the stability of the optimization results in the planning model,so as to get the general situation of the power supply in the province under the premise of ensuring the safety of the power supply.The results show that the power demand forecasting model can well represent the future change of electricity quantity in Shanxi Province.The management programming model can deal with the contradiction between energy supply and ecological environment,which not only solves the uncertainty of parameters and complicates the parameters,but also gain the appropriate power-envirnmental system planning program for the decision-making.Meanwhile,it will provide a scientific,effective and reasonable theoretical basis and reference value for the energy-economy in Shanxi province to achieve the maximum social benefits.