Reliability Analysis And Risk Assessment Of High-speed Railway Traction Substation

As the heart of the electrified railway traction power supply system,the traction substation always suffers the influence of all kinds of adverse factors.The fault occurs frequently,which seriously endangers the safety of people and property.Therefore,a high attention was paid to the reliability and risk of traction substation.At present,the research on reliability and risk of high-speed railway traction substation is still on the early stage at home and abroad.As a result,the reliability and risk research of traction substation is of an practical significance to ensure a stable operation of traction substation.Firstly,based on the system reliability engineering theory,the combination of goal oriented-FLOW(GO-FLOW)and the dynamic Bayesian theory are applied in the reliability analysis of Yizhuang traction substation of Beijing Tianjin high-speed railway in this thesis.Based on the normal operation of traction substation,the GO-FLOW diagram of the main connection for traction substation is established.The rules of the operators of the GO-FLOW methodology conversion to dynamic Bayesian network(DBN)model are determined,and based on GO-FLOW,the DBN model of the main connection for traction substation diagram is built.Then,the model is solved by using the DBN algorithm,and the reliability parameters and curves of the main connection for traction substation are obtained.The results are compared with ones which are obtained by other reliability analysis methods.Secondly,based on risk management theory,the cloud barycenter evaluation method in the cloud theory is introduced into the operation risk assessment of a traction substation.The risk assessment index system of the traction substation is established.the reasonable conversion from the qualitative concept to the quantitative representation is realized at the four aspects of management,personnel,equipment and environment.The method of combined weight is used to determine the weights of all levels with the coalition game theory.After that,a comprehensive assessment of the risk status of the traction substation is accomplished.The results are compared with ones which are obtained by other weight determination methods.Finally,according to the results of the reliability analysis and risk assessment of the high-speed railway traction substation,many suggestions for maintenance are presented.According the reliability analysis and risk assessment for the high-speed railway traction substation,the dynamic characteristics of the object are taken into account in this combined reliability analysis method,as well as the formula derivation process is reduced,which is more simple and convenient for practical application.On the one hand,the fuzziness and randomness of the risk factors for traction substation can be characterized fully,on the other hand,the comprehensive assessment can be accomplished effectively in application of the risk assessment method by using cloud barycenter evaluation method and cooperative game weighting.The assessment results are reliable,accord with the objective reality.