The Research On Aircraft Icing Forecast Based On Reanalysis Data

Aircraft icing can change aircraft aerodynamic performance,reduce the efficiency of power units,lead to instrumental failure,even cause the uncontrollable status of aircraft.Under such circumstances,a disaster is unavoidable.Therefore,it is very important to get information of spatial location and intensity of aircraft icing for guaranteeing safety of civil aviation.The resolution of NCEP reanalysis data is not accurate enough and there is no validation for the result of aircraft icing forecast utilizing Ic index,icing forecast which is based on the research lacks accuracy.Based on domestic and overseas studies of icing forecast and reanalysis data,this paper focus on the effectiveness and accuracy of aircraft icing forecast.The research work of this paper is listed as follows:Firstly,the related theories of aircraft icing and reanalysis data is introduced,and the characteristics of NCEP,ERA,JRA reanalysis data is summarized.Secondly,cloud liquid water content which is provided by ERA reanalysis data is utilized to verify the computational results of Ic index,which can help reduce missing and errors in aircraft icing forecast.Thirdly,two evaluation index of icing forecast accuracy are established,and 25 existing aircraft reports are utilized for studying the accuracy of NCEP,ERA,JRA reanalysis data in the process of aircraft icing and icing intensity forecast.Finally,an aircraft icing forecast method which is based on ERA reanalysis data and icing index computation is proposed in this paper.Utilizing the proposed icing forecast method,the aircraft icing status within a certain area which includes spatial location and icing intensity is available.Taking advantage of monthly mean of ERA reanalysis data,this forecast method can be applied to analyze the characteristic of aircraft icing level in different seasons within a certain area.