Intermittent Generation Expansion Planning Based On Correlation Analysis

With the clean energy as the characteristics of the energy structure adjustment,wind power and solar energy as the representative of the large-scale development of new energy to form a new pattern of rapid development of clean energy.However,in the initial stage of wind power and photovoltaic power plant construction,siting and sizing is composed mostly based on wind resources and light resources,with the grid capacity continues to expand,there are a number of wind farms as well as photovoltaic power station access system of a region or a similar situation in the region.On account of the geographical position,there are time shifting among different wind powers and photovoltaic plants,which causing a certain correlation between the output of wind power and photovoltaic station.In order better to study the large-scale grid clean energy generation expansion planning,it must be taken into account the correlation when there will construct new power stations.Firstly,this paper introduces the basic principle of non parametric kernel density estimation method,analysis and improves the boundary bias and the width is hard to determine existing in traditional estimation methods,the variable bandwidth KDE algorithm considering the boundary kernel is built,with which estimating the output of wind powers and photovoltaic stations,and verify the validity and practicability of the proposed method.Secondly,the paper analysis the correlation of wind power and photovoltaic plant output of Xinjiang area,and draw the rules of relevance and complementarity in large-scale new energy power grid system,which provides the basis for the correlation matrix of new energy planning in the future.Finally,aim at the minimum comprehensive cost of yearly to build the capacity palnning model of intermittent generation,and the correlation model is integrated into the planning model,at last,solve the model with Particle Swarm Optimization.