| Under the influence of climate and human activities,Water problem is increasingly prominent in our country: The occurrence of flood and drought disaster is becoming more and more frequently and the contradictions between water supply and demand are increasingly acute,which has seriously threatened the development of society and economy.As a kind of hydraulic engineering measures,reservoirs can effectively alleviate flooding and guarantee for water supply.In this way,reservoirs play an important role in flood control and drought relief.The traditional concept of controlling water is to bring the benefit and abolish the harm,which means that in the process of the whole operation of reservoirs,flood control,water supply and drought relief are separated parts.Actually,different parts of the process are related to each other and they can transform one another.If we want reservoirs to promoting steady and rapid economic development,we must scientifically understand the present situation of water resources in our country and reform the old reservoir management mode.It’s necessary to introduce Routine and Emergency Coordinated Management into reservoir management.There should be a critical value in the transition from routine to drought relief or flood control emergency.To reservoir,the critical value would be the drought limited level and the drought limited value.In management practice,researchers more focus on flood control so that the measures we have taken to regulate reservoirs would be one-sided and unbalanced.The study on reservoir drought early warning and water supply strategy in non-flood season is so weak that it can’t coordinate the existing flood control measures both in time and space.That’s why the quality of traditional reservoir management can’t be guaranteed.In this research,a new management mode is proposed,which comprehensively use the advantages of reservoir itself and outer Opportunities to change disadvantages and to counter threats.In order to achieve this goal,SWOT analytic method and 6Sigma management method are introduced into reservoir management.What’s more,a dynamic control of drought limited level is applied in Yuqiao Reservoir.The main research contents and results are as follows:(1)SWOT analytic method and 6Sigma management method are introduced into reservoir management.In this research,we adopt a new definition of SWOT,and respectively put forward corresponding suggestions for SO,ST,WO and WT cases.6 Sigma method is applied to improve the reservoir management process and an analysis of the performance of present reservoir management is gave.(2)The process of drought limited level control is improved.As hydrological series may contain alteration owning to the influence of human activities or weather changes,a diagnosis system is applied for inflow to reservoir.What’s more,a inter-basin water transfer module is added to calculate diverted water volume.In the case study of Yuqiao Reservoir,the modified inflow volume of a hydrologic year with frequency of 75% is 94 million m3,and the diverted water volume is 637.2 million m3.The static drought limited level is 16.65 m.(3)This article comes up with a method to dynamically control drought limited level.Using the form of(warning period/water level)to describe drought limited level is recommended.The annual correction of reservoir drought limited level based on potential drought period and drought warning period and the inter-annual correction based on reservoir water supply task SD model are discussed respectively.Calculations indicated that,the drought limited level of Yuqiao Reservoir would significantly fall and the warning period would be reduced after the south-to-north water transfer project completed in 2015.(4)This article puts drought limited level into characteristic level system.The article adopted a distinct idea which apply hedging rule into operation policy simulation for reservoir water-supply during drought based on drought limited level.An equation description of simulation-optimization model during drought is set up.The trial result of model built for Yuqiao Reservoir shows that the optimistic HF is generally between 0.50 and 0.75.By comparing standard operation policy(SOP)and hedging rule(HR),HR is proposed. |
