The Research In Applications Of Safety Level Approach To The Evaluation Of Safety Level Of LSA Code

Risk-based method has gained more importance in ship design and management.International Maritime Organization(IMO)has launched the establishment of amendments and restructure of maritime regulations based on the Goal-Based Standards Safety Level Approach(GBS-SLA),and attempts have been made to the restructure of life-saving appliances(LSA)regulation.The theoretical research and application capabilities of SLA will help our country to bolster negotiating position over developing rules in international maritime domain.In this paper Bayesian Networks method is adopted as the specific SLA method to conduct quantitative analysis on the safety level as the first step of SLA and based on which the cost benefit analysis in "safety knob" of the SLA is improved in the context of the SLA application to the life saving appliancesis regulations.Firstly,Bayesian Networks is obtained from an evacuation event tree model by adding influence factors such as human factors,environment factors and appliances factors,then sensitivity analysis for the factors leading to the evacuation accident where loss of life involved are conducted.Secondly,a comparison is made between the previous and the current regulations to improve the risk model to forecast the safety level of evacuation with lifeboat at present.At last,sensitivity for the risk control options(RCOs)gross cost averting fatality(GCAF)is analyzed with Bayesian decision model.After calculation and analysis based on the life-saving process Bayesian network model,it can be concluded the functional requirements and the most prominent factors that should be paid more attention to.By modifying the probability of influence factors,a fatality probability of 5 percent is predicted.Cost-benefit analysis is optimized by RCOs GCAF sensitivity analysis.The research results of the paper might benefit the understanding of situation of the maritime evacuation.SLA and sensitivity analysis will support the modification and formulation of the LSA regulations,which is of both theoretical and practical significance.