Subway Construction Risk Risk Analysis Based On System Dynamics

In recent years,as Chinese economic development,urban congestion problem becomes more and more serious.In order to alleviate urban congestion,more urban managers pay attention to the underground rail,and subway construction has become increasingly frequent.However,subway construction is a crowded construction,and there are kinds of equipment during construction process.while the environment of subway construction is complex,and the period of construction is long,therefore,subway construction risk is huge.Traditional subway construction safety management is based on the second generation and first generation security theory,the means of management are mechanical and single,and it often arises piecemeal phenomenon.In order to solve security problems,managers often dismiss somebody,but in the end,the problems still still exist,it is because there is no fundamental solution.To fundamentally solve the security problems,vision application systems need to be used o improve risk subway construction.In this study,the third generation of safety engineering theory,dynamical systems theory,and FLAC 3D theory,are applied in this paper.And Vensim and FLAC 3D simulation software are as tools to build the subway construction risk evolution model which focus on safety,time and cost three elements.Finally,to achieve the changes of risk in the evolution of subway construction,grasping and controlling these risks.The contents of this paper include:(1)Summarizing the development process and security incidents of subway construction and analyzing the research status and insufficient of subway construction risk research at home and abroad,and on this basis,to discuss the need to expand the research project.(2)The theoretical evolutionary models subway construction risk involved in the in-depth study,to lay groundwork for further study.(3)The subway construction risk system contains technical systems and organizational systems,and then conduct risk identification of subway construction.The risk of technical systems is composed of the sub-surface subsidence risk,settlement risk pipeline system risks and subway excavation face stability risks.And organizational system model contains safety culture,safety management and safety performance.(4)Based on Fuzhou Metro station of Ninghua,through FLAC 3D software,simulate construction process.And according to subway risk criterion,analysis the changes of subway construction.Meanwhile,Vensim software is based around the level of safety,schedule and cost risk,to build subway construction dynamics model.(5)Make use of simulation software to evolve subway construction risk research,simulate subway excavation process,and the changes of the security level,the risk of schedule and cost risks,as well as analyze surface subsidence,pipe settlement and discuss the simulation results.