Modeling And Simulation Of Passenger Route Choice Behavior Under Emergencies Of Urban Rail Transit

After an emergency happens in urban rail transit,the key to ensure the reasonable and effective emergency decision-making is to grasp the characteristics of passenger route choice behavior and the dynamic distribution of passenger flow.Focus on peak hours,the modeling method of passenger individual route choice behavior under emergencies is studied and a passenger route choice simulation subsystem is constructed.The main work in this thesis could be summarized as follows:(1)The characteristics and decision process of passenger route choice behavior under emergencies are analyzed.Then,the problem of passenger route choice under emergencies is decomposed into two-stage sub-problems,which are route choice under normal conditions and route adjustment under emergencies.The types and modeling methods of decision-making problem of each stage are analyzed and a two-stage modeling framework is proposed.(2)To deal with the problem of passenger route choice under normal conditions,based on the data of passenger route choice in urban rail transit operation,the influencing factors of passenger route choice during peak hours are analyzed,and a route choice modeling method for machine learning using operational data is proposed,then based on Support Vector Regression,a passenger route choice decision model under normal conditions is constructed.(3)To deal with the problem of passenger route adjustment under emergencies,the general modeling method of Cumulative Prospect Theory are analyzed,and based on Monte Carlo,a modeling method of passenger individual route adjustment decision-making is proposed,which takes the passenger prospect perception distribution as the core.The operational data is used to fit the random distribution characteristics of the alternative adjustment schemes.On this basis,a prospect probability model of adjustment scheme is constructed by using value function and cumulative decision weight function,and then the MCMC sampling method is used to simulate the prospect of the scheme which is estimated by passenger,finally a route adjustment decision model is constructed for individual.(4)A passenger route choice simulation subsystem in urban rail transit network operation simulation system is designed and developed,the following functions are implemented,including passenger flow generation,network topology model and efficient paths generation,passenger route choice under normal conditions and passenger route adjustment under emergencies.Finally,a simulation experiment and data analysis are carried out by taking an emergency of urban rail transit in Beijing as an example.