Safety Evaluation Of Ship Navigating In Night Based On Evidence Theory

With the development of the shipping industry,the maritime traffic environment is becoming increasingly complex,and marine accidents occur frequently,especially at night.So far,many researchers have studied the safety of ship navigation,but consider the influence of the limitation of the human eye vision and Navigation environment at night rarely.In some ways,the existence of these factors is dangerous to the safety of navigation.Therefore it is necessary to do some exploratory research about the safety of navigating at night.Based on the research status of ship navigation safety and evidence theory,this thesis uses a method based on Evidence theory to evaluate the Navigation safety at night.Firstly,it analyses the risk factors of ship navigation at night through the night accident case statistics in 2001-2015 from the web of Maritime Safety Administration of the People’s Republic of China.Second,based on the basic principles of establishing evaluation index,the index system composed of four subsystems of "human,ship,environment and management" is established.Thirdly,for the complexity and uncertainty of the information of ship navigation at night,the evidence theory is introduced to the safety evaluation of ship navigation at night with the advantage of dealing with fuzzy information and uncertainty problem,the safety evaluation model of ship navigation at night is proposed.Finally,it chooses Tianjin port to do the numerical example,and references for the hydrology,meteorology,channel condition,beacons,traffic flow data,and the measured data of background lights,it analyses the safety of navigation environment in night.