Transient Stability Analysis Of Power System Wind Considering Correlation Of Wind Based On Co-Kriging Surrogate Model

With the penetration of wind power in the system of continuous improvement, forecasting for wind speed, wind power injection transient stability analysis of power systems, large-scale wind farm or wind farm groups impact on system transient and other issues are analyzed and studied, put forward wind speed prediction method considering the spatio-temporal correlation, which is more reasonable and effective in terms of wind speed forecasting, and proposed a new method for transient stability analysis of system injectied wind power, the method can efficiently obtain reliable data, and use the time and space to analyze wind speed effect of correlation on the system transient stability of wind farms.The proposed prediction method considering the correlation of wind speed and space. Get Weibull distribution parameters by the historical wind speed, use time correlation, spatial correlation of wind speed predicted new sequence, and then obtain the wind farm output function according to the model. The method of the current "large-scale" of the "cluster" of actual wind farm wind speed forecasting more effective, more consistent with the model wind speed distribution, lay the foundation for further analysis including wind power systems.Propose the use of Co-Kriging surrogate model system transient stability analysis with wind power. Co-Kriging surrogate model as a black box model, wind speed as the model input, predicted node voltage generator relative power angle, the relative frequency of the system, by the respective statistical probability of the three voltage information analysis system stability, angle stability, frequency stability characteristic. IEEE39 node test system according to the actual system and Yunnan Power Grid Operators examples show that the method for systems with uncertain input reliable, efficient and practical.Research and analysis the spatial and temporal correlation between wind speed impacting on system transient stability performance. Wind forecast by the above method is different respectively time correlation, spatial correlation predicted wind speed to obtain a variety of sequences, use of Co-Kriging surrogate model obtained these transient stability characteristics of the system from winds sequences. Analysis wind speed correlation exists for the generator power angle relative to a certain extent, the greater the correlation, the greater the relative standard deviation generator power angle, the greater its volatility; correlation between wind speed node voltage, the system can be relative frequency ignore.This article provides the wind prediction and analysis system containing uncertain input a new idea for the system designing and planning, operation scheduling to provide a strong reference, has some significance.