The Distribution Of Flood Disaster Loss In China And Its Risk Management

As the increasing of the production development and advances in science and technology, the pace of economic development is continuously improving, and huge impact on damage of natural disasters is becoming more and more difficult to estimate. On the basis of catastrophe loss data, this paper uses the extreme value theory to analysis the loss data of great natural disasters.It selects the data of flood disasters in our country between 1985 to 2010, studies the traits of the disasters and does the risk measurements, most of all, gives a warning to industries related.In order to look for the distribution of the flood, this paper uses the sample data to do the empirical analysis separately on the basis of theoretical analysis. The results show that, the flood data has the traits of peaks and heavy tails and can be applied to extreme value theory. The author uses Generalized Pareto Distribution to fit the data, the results show that the flood disaster belongs to extreme event. This way is very suitable. As the parameter estimation, this paper separately uses Maximum likelihood estimation and MCMC estimation. The results show that the latter method is more exactable, and finally gets the extreme model. In order to study the Net Premium, this paper applies the poission distribution and has the conclusion that the insurance company can accept minimum contribution limit. Finally, the research of the risk measurement according to Probable Maximum Loss and value at risk reveals that if we don't Strengthen the flood hazard prevention, it will give a huge shock to not only our economic but also our life.Overall, the situation in our country is very serious, therefore, in the prevention and control of flood disasters in China, we should strengthen the consciousness of risk prevention, and further increases the flood insurance theory and related technologies.