Research On Substation Construction Risk Evaluation Based On Bayesian Network Of Topsis Method

Electric power industry is the first basic industry of national economy, is the basis of the relationship between national economy and people's livelihood industry, is the key point of the development of the national economic development strategy in the first, the importance of electric power industry has been fully reflected in the economic development. As the development of national economy important basic industry, its development is related to national economic development and the improvement of people's living standards. With the continuous development of our country's economy, the growing demand for electricity, it is decided to a large amount of electric power construction project. A typical representative of the electric power construction project is the transformer substation construction project. During the “Twelfth Five-year Plan” period, our country will invest hundreds of billions of yuan for substation construction, which has many risks, so the risk problem of substation project has emerged. In the risk management of substation project, most substation project managers lack of the considerations of the complex natural and social environment. These uncertainty factors will inevitably interfere with the control and management of project schedule, quality and cost, at same time it is bound to affect the smooth realization of substation project goal. Therefore, no matter in theory or practice, the risk management of substation project must be strengthened.First of all, from the perspective of the construction of risk management research status at home and abroad, respectively introduces the project risk, risk management related theory, introduces the concept of substation construction risk management, then analyzes the problems existing in the risk management of substation construction as well as the reasons. In accident type of transformer substation construction risk analysis made on the basis of risk identification, summarizes the many factors influencing the substation construction risk; Through the substation accident analysis, analyzes the potential risk factors in the transformer substation construction; Using TOPSIS method related to many risk factors for comparison and screening, the degree of important substation construction risk evaluation index system is established. Using the method of bayesian network to construction the probability of occurrence of a risk assessment, it is concluded that the ultimate level of risk quantitative results, and proposed the corresponding risk coping strategies.The study of risk management of substation project in this paper provides the reference to the managers who are engaged in the risk management of substation project.