Optimal Path Recommend Model Research Based On Travel Reliability

With the steady growth of urbanization and vehicle ownership,the urban traffic system becomes more and more complex.For travelers,urban transportation is uncertainty and randomness.And for managers,the traditional route guidance approach may introduce the traffic flow into the critical road,then causing massive traffic jams.Therefore,this paper proposes a travel optimal path policy,that can avoid via the urban critical road under the condition of guaranteeing travelers’ trip reliability.The study includes the method of road criticality calculate,travelers reasonable paths identify,and the evaluate method of travel route reliability.Based on the defined failure scope of the link,its criticality calculation is quantified in terms of vulnerability and importance.The vulnerability is calculated by the probability of link failure under the some failure rules.Link importance evaluation is based on the network reconstruction after the link failure,the local node OD are redistributed on the local reconstructed network within the scope of failure link,link importance calculation contains two aspects: impact indicator of variation of traveler time cost()afF U and traffic load variation indicator of local network()afF S.Reasonable path identification is to analyse the travelers’ traffic psychology,defining travelers’ acceptable path impedance value range reasonably,according to the depth-first reverse search algorithm to find all paths within the scope of the impedance values as the initial Reasonable paths,Using repetition rate between the sections of initial Reasonable paths as the calculate index,this paper proposes a reasonable path set select method with the biggest opposite sex’s between this paths.Travel route reliability evaluation is based on link criticality calculate of network,the model builds through the traveler travel time change of the critical link interrupted.On the one hand,the model reflects the risk of link disruption suffered from travelers,on the other hand reflects the impact of travel time changes after interrupted from managers.Travel reliable optimal path is evaluated by travel path reliability evaluation of reasonable path set,the path with the highest evaluation value as the optimal path.Example verification with recommending the travel reliable optimal path in Yuzhong District at 7:30-8:30 a.m.The result indicates that the model is applicative and scientific in large-scale road network.