| There are lots of uncertainty in slope stability analysis. because of the complexity of slope and the variability of soil parameters. Currently, the most popular method of slope stability is limit equilibrium method which based on the deterministic theory, It is difficult to express the uncertainty of slope stability, In this thesis, it was analyzed based on uncertainty theory using Bayesian theory and which attempts to provide an effective way for the slope stability analysis of uncertainty.Firstly, the method of slope stability analysis is introduced, then uncertainty model of slope is studied by combining Bayesian method with numerical analysis. The followings are the main research content.(1) In this thesis, the model of slope stability was analyzed by using GEO-SLOPE software. The different distribution of soil parameters influence on the distribution of the factor of safety and the sensitivity of soil parameters were analyzed.(2) Bayesian theory and Win BUGS software are introduced and the uncertainty expression. The main idea of Monte Carlo and MCMC method are presented.(3) Several sampling methods and steps that Use MCMC to solve the posterior distribution integration problem. such as Gibbs sampling and M-H sampling.(4) Through several examples illustrate the basic application and comparative analysis of Bayesian method and MCMC method. |
