The Risk Analysis And Calculation Of Hydropower Station Penstock

With the gradual increase in the size of the station, its security has received increasing attention. Penstock is an important part of hydropower, which brings together most or all of the head station and close to the plant in case of accident will affect the normal operation of the pipeline and power station, even a serious threat to the safety of the power plant staff therefore, the risk study on hydropower penstock is imperative.This paper analyzes and discusses the sources of risk as well as various uncertainty factors of hydropower station penstock and describes the risk calculation methods; Using chain equation and MATLAB programming software to preliminary explore the effects of valve closure rule on valve water hammer,get the end of the pipeline pressure process line under different valve closing law and quantitative analysis of the calculation results.In determining the probability distribution of random variables and the establishment of risk under the premise of computing functions, making the results of the risk exemplified by backfill type pressure steel pipe of Tewuler Power Station in Usu City and using the Monte Carlo method,The results show that:(1) The risk of penstock is obtained by using the fourth strength theory is more practical when design the penstock; structural design is too conservative to reduce investment in economy while using a single direction of stress;(2) Material performance parameters of the uncertainty have little impact on the risk of steel pipe, so we can ignore the impact of uncertainty in order to simplify the calculation;(3) Water hammer uncertainty greatest risk, the risk changes can be achieved 1.12E-02, which in the design of which we should select the appropriate water hammer calculation methods and standard deviation. Water hammer pressure calculation is too small, penstock can not reach strength requirements, the calculation is too large, resulting in economic waste.