Study On Minimum Demand Purchase Of PPP Project For Sewage Treatment

Due to the instability of the market environment,the government needs to take the risk of minimum demand to enhance the financing of the PPP project.But in practice,the minimum demand evolves into a fixed return.It has not only caused the damage of government finance,but also damaged the public interest,which is not conducive to the healthy development of the project.Therefore,this paper puts forward the scientific problem of the research on the minimum demand purchase amount of the government in the sewage treatment PPP project.The purpose is to make clear the difference between minimum demand and fixed return,to define the reasonable range of minimum demand for sewage treatment,to avoid the excessive commitment of the government,and to make the social capital gain excess income.It also avoids the government making too low a commitment to project financing.PPP projects are a hybrid organization,and cooperation between government and social capital is based on longterm contracts.Due to the limited rationality of human beings and the uncertainty in the future,there is a big deviation between the actual and the forecast.In the PPP project of sewage treatment,the main manifestation is the minimum demand guarantee provided by the government in advance to enhance the financing ability of the project.Because of the interference of risk factors in the actual implementation process,the equilibrium state maintained by the prior guarantee is broken,and the minimum demand purchase quantity guarantee of the government should be readjusted according to the changes at this time.Therefore,the contract state theory is used to make use of the contract state theory.This paper analyzes that there are three states in the study of government minimum demand purchase quantity,which correspond to the initial equilibrium state of minimum demand guarantee established at the beginning of contract signing,and the risk interference contract state is broken.Based on the above analysis,this paper studies as follows.Firstly,according to the capital cash flow statement of "method and parameters of Construction Project"(the third edition),this paper analyzes the total life cycle cash flow of sewage treatment PPP project,and establishes the cash flow analysis model of NPV equal to 00:00,with the help of capital asset pricing model.It is clear that the reasonable range of government minimum demand purchase amount of sewage treatment PPP project is risk-free rate of return and benchmark rate of return,and it is proposed that excess return share should be adopted to exceed the market average rate of return.Thus,through the incentive and regulation of "holding pressure" to promote the healthy development of sewage treatment PPP project.Secondly,through the literature,the case identification sewage treatment PPP project life cycle risk,through establishes the risk factor causality loop diagram,the clear risk conduction path;Secondly,the content of risk tolerance analysis for core risk factors and the risk-based adjustment model for wastewater treatment PPP project are defined.Thirdly,through the quantitative analysis of the capacity of the sewage treatment PPP project to the main risks,with the help of sensitivity analysis and break-even analysis,it is clear that the IRR NPV in the sewage treatment PPP project,the balance point of profit and loss is ranked according to the sensitivity of the core risk variables.The change value of profit and loss breakeven point based on risk is obtained,and the adjustment formula of subsidy based on profit and loss equilibrium point is put forward with the aid of financial analysis report.In summary,through literature review,case analysis,cash flow analysis,causality analysis,break-even analysis and sensitivity analysis,this paper determines the reasonable range of the minimum demand for sewage treatment.The influence of risk factors on minimum demand purchase is analyzed.The influence of risk variables on PPP project is analyzed quantitatively by case analysis,and the adjustment value of sewage treatment based on contract state balance is obtained,which provides a reference for the development of sewage treatment PPP project in practice.Avoid failure due to defined returns and minimum requirements.