Study On The Pressure And Capacity Of China's Provincial Carbon Emission Reduction Based On GWR Model

Global warming caused by the emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas is a serious threat to human survival and the sustainable development of economy and society.Therefore,responding to global climate change actively has become the consensus of the international community,while developing countries are facing double pressure from both environmental protection and economic development.Transportation is the second largest source of greenhouse gas emissions after energy supply,which is also the fastest-growing source,so transportation is an important industry affecting energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions.It can be seen that for China,the construction of low-carbon transportation system has gradually become an important means for the Chinese government to deal with environmental pollution and climate change.The low-carbon operation in the transportation field is an open and complex system which is closely connected with the social production and life.Especially,due to vast territory in China,the latitude and longitude position,the economic development stage and the transportation structure of the provinces are different from each other.There is a clear spatial difference between areas and the time and space characteristics of provinces are complex.For these reasons,using the industry's internal carbon emissions,carbon intensity and other absolute indicators simply can not effectively reflect the pressure of carbon-reduction and the carbon-reduction capacity in different provinces and cities.At the same time,due to the lack of the analysis and evaluation about the time and space characteristics of regional transportation industry carbon-reduction pressure and carbon-reduction capacity,providing effective reference of low-carbon transport system planning,objectives and policy recommendations of carbon-reduction for different provinces is difficult.To this end,combined with the actual situation of transport industry using scientific theory and appropriate analytical tools or methods to evaluate the provincial traffic carbon-reduction pressure and capacity is the key to the problem.In this paper,to address global warming as the main macroeconomic background,to detail Chinese provincial pressure and capacity of traffic carbon-reduction as the main tasks,to form a low-carbon transportation system planning and implement the transportation carbon-reduction as the aim,the following work and research have be done.Firstly,based onthe explicit objective of this study,tasting and summarizing existing research and research methods in studies about the carbon-reduction in the transportation industry and other industries made by the domestic and foreign scholars,which is the theoretical basis of this paper.Secondly,based on the method of estimating CO2 emission by IPCC,building the model and the traffic pressure index of each province and city is measured and visualized.In this model,the base period is set on the basis of the intensity of transportation carbon emissions in 2005 and the target value of pressure index reference volume is set according to the intensity of transportation carbon emissions in 2020.Thirdly,using the GWR model and the Gaussian function method to construct the carbon-reduction capacity index model of China's regional traffic by determining the weight function and bandwidth.According to further calculation and testing,the heterogeneity of the driving factor is obtained.Finally,using semi-variant function and clustering analysis tools,Chinese provincial spatial characteristics are analyzed quantitatively and qualitatively.In this paper,China's provincial traffic carbon-reduction and carbon-reduction capacity are as the research object,and the time interval of the study is from 2005 to 2015.The main research results and conclusions can be summarized as follows:(1)Compared with the traditional OLS model,the GWR model can consider the non-equilibrium characteristics of different observation unit data in space and reveal the difference of driving factors of carbon-reduction in China's provinces and cities and it can also depict the spatial action pattern of carbon-reduction capacity and its driving effect.(2)During the period from 2005 to 2015,the carbon-reduction pressure in China's provinces and cities fluctuated with the vertical changes of time,and was mainly divided into "M","W","U" and the type of declining linearly.At the spatial level,there are significant differences in the carbon-reduction pressure index between different provinces and cities,and there is no obvious increase or decrease in an angle or direction.(3)During the period from 2005 to 2015,the driving effect of the scale factor of the carbon-reduction capacity in China's provinces fluctuated up and down and the negative driving effect of the technical factors was gradually increased,and the driving effect of the structural factors was strengthened and then weakened.The difference of traffic carbon-reduction capacity between provinces and cities also increased at first and thendecreased,but finally gradually converged.(4)During the period of 2005 to 2015,both the change direction of the traffic carbon-reduction capacity index of Chinese provinces and the anisotropy is different.In the2005,2010 and 2015 time nodes,the most significant angles of anisotropy were north by east63.81 °,52.56° and 102.30°,respectively.In 2005 and 2010,the distribution of high and low clustering was basically the same,while high value clustering location occurred significantly southward in 2015.(5)Traffic carbon-reduction pressure is the external demand of traffic carbon-reduction capacity;traffic carbon-reduction capacity is the inherent potential of Traffic carbon-reduction pressure,andachieving the emission reduction goal by matching each other.